KASIKORNTHAI Regulatory Capital and Financial Performance Update
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Currency and Interest Rate Outlook (as of 13 December 2023)
USD/THB: End Period
Interest Rate Trend
Bt
35.97 35.84
33.41 34.61
35.00 34.00
Fed Funds rate
BOT's 1-Day Repurchase rate
10.00
332
37
82.68
32.91
32.66
32.55 29.98 29.95
5.00
2.25
2.00
0.00
29
1,50 1.50 1.50 1.50
1.25
0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0.50 0.50-0,75 1.25-1.50 2.25-2.50 1.50-1.75 0-0.2550 0-0.29.50
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23F Dec-24F
4.25-4.50
1.25
5.25-5.50 4.50-4.75
2.50
2.50
4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21 4Q22 4Q23F 4Q24F
USD THB
■ Baht is expected to be at 34.00 per USD at the end
of 2024 as the difference between the interest
rates of the BOT and the Fed is likely to narrow
■ Also, Thai economy is likely to continue growing
and the current account balance is likely to pose a
bigger surplus
■ However, Thai baht will be facing some volatility
throughout next year due to several risks in many
area that will carry into 2024
■Fed would cut its interest rates totaling of 75bps
starting in 2Q24 as the Fed would wait and ensure
that inflation will not surge back up again
■ On the contrary, BOT's rate would reach its terminal
level and would maintain the current rate at 2.50%
throughout 2024 to ensure that inflationary
pressures from government stimulus as well as
minimum wage hikes are well contained
Note: F is estimated by KBank Capital Markets Research (as of December 13, 2023)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Monthly Economic Conditions: October 2023
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORN BANK
2022
Units: YoY %, or indicated otherwise
Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23
Feb-23 Mar-23
Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23
Oct-23
■In October 2023, private
Private Consumption Index (PCI)
8.5
5.9
6.7
2.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.3
7.0
5.8
7.8
7.6
6.6
7.3
consumption improved in
Non-durables Index
2.1
1.4
2.0
-0.5
2.2
3.6
1.9
1.9
4.3
1.7
1.9
2.6
0.9
3.5
Durables Index
Service Index
Passenger Car Sales
Motorcycle Sales
7.4
2.6
0.3
-5.6
0.4
4.3
3.0
1.3
7.9
4.2
2.9
-1.8
-2.6
3.9
almost all categories, except in
22.9
24.7
23.0
19.9
22.7
24.2
28.2
24.0
19.1
17.3
17.8
16.6
15.3
11.9
10.6
4.4
-11.1
-1.0
-9.4
22.8 -26.3 24.5 -21.6
31.7 -29.7
32.8 43.2
38.4
12.0
0.6
3.3 -12.7
-1.2
15.1
9.0
11.5
23.5
25.3
13.5
9.2
9.6
25.1
service sector that showed sign
of deceleration
Private Investment Index (PII)
2.7
0.5
-1.0
4.4
-1.6
0.0
0.7
-2.4
3.1
-1.8
1.0
4.9
-4.5
-0.2
Construction Material Sales Index
3.3
4.1
11.1
-3.6
-1.1
0.2
1.8
-7.6
2.6
-1.3
1.0
3.4
-1.5
-1.9
Domestic Machinery Sales at constant prices
8.6
3.7
3.1
0.2
0.4
3.3
5.3
0.8
4.9
4.6
-6.4
-12.4
-12.1
-5.5
Imports of Capital Goods at constant prices
-2.7
-5.1
-9.2
-13.5
-4.5
-2.6
-1.1
-3.9
11.6
5.4
10.1
-1.7
1.5
6.0
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment
8.6
-4.0
-10.1
-8.5
-14.7
-10.7
-17.7
-17.8
-16.5
-20.0
-10.5
-27.5
-30.8
-8.9
Manufacturing Production Index
0.4
4.2
-5.4
-8.4
4.8
-2.4
-3.9
-8.7
-3.0
-5.0
4.7
-7.7
-6.3
4.3
Capacity Utilization
62.8
60.5
60.1
60.0
60.4
61.4
60.7
58.6
59.7
59.6
60.2
58.9
58.6
57.8
Agricultural Production Index
0.9
-24
1.8
-0.9
2.5
5.6
1.5
9.1
-5.7
-0.6
-3.2
-0.1
1.3
-0.9
Agricultural Price Index
11.6
18.4
13.3
7.5
17
44
-87
-7.4
-2.5
-5.9
-3.6
-2.8
1.6
1.0
Tourist arrival growth
2506.6 7178.9 1815.8
872.3
1502.7 1283.3
953.0
644.0
286.2 191.5 119.5 107.7
69.2
49.7
Exports (Custom basis)
5.5
4.4
-6.0
-14.6
4.5
4.7
-4.2
-7.6
4.6
-6.4
-6.2
2.6
2.1
8.0
Price
4.2
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.0
2.1
0.9
0.9
0.2
-0.4
0.5
1.1
1.7
1.5
Volume
1.3
-6.3
-7.8
-14.2
-6.3
-6.0
-6.5
5.8
-6.1
-5.5
-5.9
-2.9
-0.6
5.3
Imports (Custom basis)
13.6
-2.1
5.6
-11.9
5.5
1.1
-7.1
-7.3
-3.4
-10.3
-11.0
-12.8
-83
10.2
to deficit
Price
13.0
13.0
Volume
2.0
བསྒྱུ
12.1
12.4
8.8
5.2
0.5
1.8
-1.6
-3.5
-1.8
-0.6
1.5
1.3
-7.7
37
-190
2.1
-32
-61
-53
-0.3
-6.0
-10.4
-114
-9.2
9.1
Trade Balance ($ millions) (Custom basis)
Current Account ($millions)
-16,123
-16,942.4 410.9 -521.8
-596
-1,342
-1,034 -4,650
-1,113 2,719 -1,472 -1,849
58 -1,978
360 2,093
-832
854.4 -2,445.6 509.4 3,964.2 -239.6 -3,161.6
867 6
508.0 401.2 3,406.0
664.6
Headline CPI
Core CPI
6.08
2.51
5.98
5.55
3.17
3.22
5.89
3.23
5.02
3.79
2.83
2.67
0.53
0.23
0.38
0.88
0.30
-0.31
3.04
1.93
1.75
1.66
1.55
1.32
0.86
0.79
0.63
0.66
■Both of manufacturing and
agricultural productions
declined, after accelerating in
the previous period
■Thai exports expanded at a
highest rate in more than a year
■Meanwhile, current account still
registered to surplus for the
third consecutive month,
despite trade balance returning
■Headline inflation slipped into
negative territory for the first
time in 25 months, due to
government measures and high
base in 2022
Sources: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), and Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)
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