Citi Investment Banking Pitch Book
Selected Assumptions Underlying Financial Projections for ALR
Senior Living
Communities -
Owned Portfolio
Lifestyle Services
Assumptions
Management Fees
Revenue
G&A
Acq. & Disp. Of
Property & Equipment
Net Working Capital
ā
ā
Source: ALR Management as of 02/02/2023.
Average occupancy for the owned portfolio is forecasted to increase 780 bps (Average Daily Census, "ADC," increase of 164) in 2023,
500 bps (ADC increase of 105) in 2024, 320 bps (ADC increase of 67) in 2025, 170 bps (ADC increase of 36) in 2026 and 60 bps (ADC
increase of 13) in 2027
RevPOR is forecasted to increase 11% in 2023, 9% in 2024, 5% in 2025 and 3% in 2026 and 2027
Residential wages and benefits as a percentage of residential revenues are forecasted to decrease to 62% in 2023, 59% in 2024 and
58% from 2025 through 2027
Decrease in wages and benefits as a percentage of revenues will be driven by the operational efficiencies and increase in occupancy
Other residential operating expenses as a percentage of residential revenues are forecasted to decrease to 35% in 2023, 30% in 2024
and 27% from 2025 through 2027
Forecast assumes opening of 18 Ageility outpatient locations in 2023 and 9 Ageility outpatient locations in 2024
Years 2025 through 2027 assume focus on growing revenues at existing locations
Revenue is forecasted to grow 1% quarterly from 2025 through 2027
Residential management fee revenue is driven by average occupancy growth of 600 bps (ADC increase of 1,100) in 2023, 480 bps
(ADC increase of 849) in 2024, 240 bps (ADC increase of 439) in 2025, 130 bps (ADC increase of 227) in 2026 and 50 bps (ADC
increase of 88) in 2027
RevPOR is forecasted to increase 7% in 2023, 11% in 2024, 5% in 2025 and 3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027
Forecast assumes fee eligible capital spend of approximately $100 million each year on behalf of managed communities
Forecast does not assume DHC exercises any contractual termination rights in the case that profitability at any managed community
drops below a contractually defined threshold
Management fee revenues does not include potential to earn 15% incentive fees on excess of portfolio EBITDA target.
G&A expenses forecasted as ~31% of total revenue (excl. reimbursements) in 2023E, decreasing to -28% by 2027E
G&A expenses forecasted to decrease -16% in 2023E and increase -3% in 2024E, -4% in 2025E, -3% in 2026 and -2% in 2027E
Acquisition and Disposition of Property and Equipment expense of $16.4mm in 2023E, $8.4mm in 2024E, and $6.0mm thereafter
Increase in Net Working Capital of $1.0mm in 2023E, $2.1mm in in 2024E, $0.6mm in 2025E, $0.3mm in 2026E, and $0.1mm in 2027E
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