Sequoia Capital Market Presentation Deck
ON THE BRINK OF A RECESSION
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT MULTI-DECADE LOWS
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
140
120
100
80
60
40
75
70
65
60
55
Dec-74,
43.2
50
45
40
35
30
ISM
Manufacturing
Oct-82, 54.3
May-80, 50.1
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
C
Nov-70, 39.7
Feb-92, 47.3
Jan-75, 30.7
ISM IS FALLING FAST
ISM Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Index
Mar-03, 61.4
Feb-91, 39.4
May-82, 35.5
May-80, 29.4
Oct-01, 40.8
Sep-08
€59.8
ISM Non-
Manufacturing
25
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Aug-08
50.6
0.12
Source: Haver, NAHB, Conference Board, NFIB, Morgan Stanley Research, DoL & DB Global Markets Research.
0.1
0.08
0.00
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
Thousand
4000
3600
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
Sep
Sep-T3
00
-Continued unemployment insurance claims (4 wk MA, Is)
→ Unemployment rate (rs)
Sep-75
01
Am
Sep-17
02
Sep-79
03
Sep-81
Sep-83-
Sep-85-
NBER recession
04
GDP IS POISED TO TURN NEGATIVE
Real GDP and GDP growth (YOY SA)
Sep-87-
05
Sep-89-
Sep-91
€6-das
06
GDpg
07
Sep-95
Sep-97
08
Sep-99
%
-GDPg
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Sep-01-
Sep-03-
Sep-05-
Sep-07View entire presentation