Currency and Interest Rate Outlook slide image

Currency and Interest Rate Outlook

Integrated Circuits & Parts Motor Vehicles 45.7 Food Basic Metal 47.3 Rubber & Plastic Products 48.2 Chemical & Chemical Products Paper and Paper Products Textiles 37.4 Tobacco 59.6 Investment Value (Bt bn) K KASIKORNTHAI ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Economic Condition Highlights: CAPEX and Investment Cycle Capacity Utilization by Key Industries Investment value of BOI-approved applications (Total)* 76.8 Baverages 56.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 53.2 57.7 ■2019 ■2020 75.1 2017 ■2018 5M21 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 150 100 50 0 1,000 Units 250 200 146 161 Demand Side: Transferred Properties in BMR* 178 151 159 182 174 196 197 206 197 175 163 2012 2013 1,000 Units ននននន ■New Housing Completions ■New Projects Launched 170 150 132131 133 130 108 125 117 111 114 114 119 110 102 131 124 127 81 86 115 112 90 66 101 64 109 73 70 50 30 10 -10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), BOT, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), and KResearch Note: *Including Condominium, Single House, and Townhouse; BMR = Bangkok and Metropolitan Area บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 2018 2019 2020 5M/2020 43.9 25.5 33.4 17.6 5M20 5M21 68.6 62.5 5M/2021 2005 2001 Loans to Property Developers 2009 2013 2017 1Q21 Housing Loans ■Mortgage loans to GDP are higher than pre-crisis level, due to factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more accessible credit market ■ Outstanding loans granted to property developers to GDP was 4.7% in 1Q21, still lower than pre-crisis level ■Supply Side: Overall new housing projects launched in 5M21 decreased 30.8% YoY, due to large housing supply and effects of COVID-19 ■Demand Side: In 5M21, property transactions decreased 9.0% YoY, with a rise in household debt and high concern about employment security ■Mortgage NPLs among Thai commercial banks was at 3.74% in 1Q21, compared to 3.78% in 2020 K KASIKORNTHAI ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Property Market: Overall market remains contracted; high concern about the seriousness of the COVID-19 situation Supply Side: New Housing Completions and New Projects Launched in BMR* Outstanding Mortgage Loans to Individuals and Property Developers to GDP Source: The Bank of Thailand (BOT), The Ministry of Commerce (MOC), and Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) (Data as of Jun 2021) Source: The Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) Note: *Figures above indicate investments of approved projects requesting investment promotion benefits from BOI บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ Investment Value (Bt bn) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Agriculture Minerals&Ceramics Light Industry ■2016 2017 17.13 Metal Processing 13.33 Electronics & Electrical 17.53 207 Chemical Plastic Paper -2019 6.17 Service & Infrastructure 29.44 Technology and Innovation Investment value of BOI-approved applications (by Industry)* 1,100 867.5 (+7%) 900 631.1 700 (-27%) 500 447.4 459.5 (-13%) (-19%) 361.4 (-19%) 100.1 300 100 -100 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 0.22 2020 1Q21 153 % of GDP 30 25 20 16.8 15 10.4 10 5 0 1993 1997 27.1 4.7 154
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