Market Outlook and Operational Insights
HARD COKING COAL MARKET
Easing supply constraints post La-Nina and
weaker than expected recovery in Chinese
steel demand have weighed on prices
Hard coking coal price and arbitrage
(US$/t)
700
Seasonal India restocking and potential
Australian supply constraints due to rail
logistics bottlenecks expected to provide
near-term price support
III
SOUTH32
Growing demand and tighter supply of
premium HCC (a) to provide long term price
support for high grade product
Premium HCC as % of Global Seaborne HCC supply is decreasing
(%)
100%
600
500
400
300
200
100
Aug-19
Feb-20
Aug-20
Feb-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
-Prem Low Vol HCC FOB Australia
سا
Aug-22
Feb-23
Aug-23
Prem Low Vol HCC CFR China
80%
60%
40%
20%
2022
2030e
2040e
Premium HCC HCC
Sources: Hard coking coal price and arbitrage (Platts, South32 Analysis). Premium HCC as % of Global Seaborne HCC supply is decreasing (CRU, South32 analysis).
Notes:
a.
Premium hard coking coal (HCC) is classified as CSR (coke strength after reaction) greater than 65.
SLIDE 42View entire presentation