3Q 2021 Investor Presentation
Number of rating actions
Managing Ratings¹ in Turbulent Times
Non-Financial Corporates: COVID-19 Dashboard (Q3 2021)
Recovery in credit quality underway; corporate rating actions reveal a thoughtful and measured approach to credit
Upgrades surpass downgrades in late 2020; speculative-grade default rate falling significantly
→ Upgrades
350
Downgrades --Represent default rate
Building heights represent the global speculative grade default rate on a trailing 12-month basis
300
250
200
3.6
150
100
50
|
2020
6.8
3.3
7%
6%
Certain sectors remain more pressured than others
لمصر
SECTOR
Transportation: Consumer
Hotel, Gaming & Leisure
Aerospace & Defense
Global - All Sectors
Regional - All Sectors
% NEGATIVE OUTLOOK/REVIEW-DN
43
15
26
38
mmmm 1217 18 21
North America Latin America APAC EMEA
Represents the percentage of issuers within each sector with a negative outlook or under review for downgrade at 30 September 2021.
Sectors shown are at least 10 points above the global average.
5%
Most downgrades since
outbreak have involved
4%
speculative-grade issuers
1,107
Speculative Grade
°
688
B
Approximately
3,700
176
3%
rated corporates
globally
Investment Grade
209
Ba
204
Caal
124
46 Baa
1.7
2%
1
5
A
Aaa
Aa
1%
Ca
Calculated based on each issuer family since 1 March 2020; some issuer families have been downgraded more than one time over that
horizon. Some issuers have changed legal entities or otherwise do not align perfectly with entities present at 1 March 2020. A significant
number of new issuers were also added.
Timely analytical response to COVID-19
MAR
16 Sector exposure to 07
Covid-19 identified
Covid hits mostly
MAY
smaller, highly
2020
2020
MAR
APR
MAY JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT NOV
DEC JAN
T
NOV
leveraged companies 2020
T
I
T
FEB
MAR APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
DEC
FORECAST
2021
COVID-19 downgrades
pick up as the virus
spreads around the world
1. Non-Financial Corporates as of 3Q 2021.
Moody's | Better decisions
Trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate; forecast uses Credit Transition Model
24
Resurgent infections
test resilience
26
Covid-19 impact
MAY
2021
is shifting to
emerging markets
17
Measured approach
07
MAR
described
2020
OCT
2020
Focus shifts from liquidity
to earnings growth and MAR
debt capacity
2021
31
1 year on, recovery
underway
3Q 2021 Investor Presentation
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