1Q20 Results Discussion
-40
-20
ANNA
80
60
40
20
Inflation targeting since 2009
Inflation y-o-y vs. inflation target
Sources: NBG, GeoStat
As demand and supply shocks stemming from the pandemic move inflation in
different directions, we expect the demand side to prevail with time and
inflation to decelerate towards the target by the end of 2020, with
forecasting annual inflation to average 4.7%
10
8
IMF
6
9.0
6.9
7.0
4
5.0
2
3.0
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
M2 vs. inflation, y-o-y,%
Sources: Geostat, NBG
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-09
Sep-17
Mar-10
Nov-17
Sep-10
Mar-11
Jan-18
Sep-11
Mar-18
Mar-12
May-18
Sep-12
Jul-18
Mar-13
Sep-13
Sep-18
Mar-14
Nov-18
Sep-14
Jan-19
Mar-15
Mar-19
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Jan-20
Mar-20
M2 Y/Y % LHS ----Inflation Y/Y % RHS
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
20
1400
15
1300
1200
10
1100
1000
5
900
800
0
700
600
500
-5
400
2010_I
2010_III
2011_I
-2
0
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
-inc
Sep-16
Nov-16
Source: GeoStat
Jan-17
Inflation y-o-y
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-
Sep-18
Nov-18
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
Core inflation closer to target
10
Monthly Inflation
Headline Inflation
Average monthly nominal earnings
Source: Geostat
Core (non-food, non-energy) Inflation
Monthly nominal earnings increased on average 7.7% y-o-y in 2010-2019
1,320
GEL
2011_III
2012 I
2012_III
2013 I
2013 III
2014 I
2014_III
2015_I
2016 I
2015_III
2016 III
2017 I
2017_III
2018_I
2019 I
2018 III
2019_III
Page 67
Jan-19
Mar-19
-леW
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
8
0
864 NON
2
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