Investor Presentaiton
Nigerian Economy and Key Developments in the Banking Sector
GDP Growth Rate
5.01%
4.03%
3.98%
0.51%
03/20
-3.62%
Q4'20
0.11%
Q1'21
Q2 '21
Q3 '21
Q4'21
-6.10%
Real GDP Growth:
Nigeria's real GDP grew by 3.98% y/y in Q4 2021, showing a sustained positive growth for
the fifth quarter since the 2020 recession. However, it was 0.05% lower than the 4.03%
growth recorded in Q3 2021.
■ The oil sector contracted by 8.06% y/y and contributed 5.19% to total real GDP in Q4
2021 while the non-oil sector grew by 4.73% and contributed the balance of 94.81%. The
growth in non-oil sector was driven mainly by growth in Agriculture (Crop Production);
Information and Communication (Telecommunication), Trade, and Financial and
Insurance (Financial Institutions).
Headline Inflation:
☐
Headline inflation declined marginally to 15.60% y/y in Jan'22 from 15.63% y/y recorded
in Dec'21.
Over the same period, food inflation declined by 24 bps to close at 17.13% y/y while core
inflation came in flat at 13.87% y/y.
Oil Production & Price:
OPEC average monthly basket price increased by 0.68% in the 4th quarter of 2021, from
$73.9/bbl recorded in Sept'21 to $74.4/bbl recorded in Dec'21. The average monthly
basket price rose further to $85.4/bbl in Jan'22 while the current daily price stands at
$112.2/bbl as at 2nd March 2022.
Q2'20
Inflation Rate
16.63%
15.99%
17.38%
15.40%
15.63%
15.60%
17.01%
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
☐
Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.50 mbpd in Q4 2021, a decrease of
0.07 mbpd from 1.57 mbpd recorded in Q3 2021.
Foreign Reserves:
Foreign Reserves / Oil Price
■ Nigerian foreign reserves increased by 10.1% QoQ from $36.8bn recorded at the end of
Q3 2021 to $40.5bn recorded at the end of Q4 2021. The foreign reserves currently
stands at $39.9bn as at 28th Febuary 2022.
Exchange Rate:
As at 2021 FYE, the local currency (NGN) had depreciated by about 6% YoY against the
USD. NAFEX (I&E) window exchange rate (NGN/USD) as at 2021 FYE- 424.11 (2020 FYE
NAFEX-400.30).
Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) & Monetary Policy Rate (MPR):
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) voted to
retain all existing monetary policy rates all through the year 2021. Cash Reserve Ratio
(CRR) - 27.5%; Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) - 11.5%; and Liquidity Ratio - 30%.
82.1
85.4
80.4
73.9
74.4
73.5
70.3
40.0
41.8
41.2
40.5
34.0
36.8
33.4
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Av Monthly Basket Price of Crude (US$/bbl)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, OPEC
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
- Foreign Reserves (US$Bn)
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