RS Public Opinion Analysis

Counterarguments that focus on likely job losses and possible armed conflict won't fundamentally change the debate but could blunt support for the move. 20 Messages pushing back on the withdrawal and transfer are more persuasive in East RS than in North RS, suggesting a possible path to undermine support in Dodik's base. Ipsos (If Strongly/Somewhat Support): Please tell us whether the following arguments impact your support for RS withdrawal from state institutions. A withdrawal from state institutions would further inflame the situation in BiH and might lead to armed conflict If such a withdrawal happens, about 51% 36% 32% 17% 19% 19% 12% 13% 13% 25% 43% 19% North RS East RS 7,000 RS citizens 10% 25% would lose their 54% 20% 1214% 46% 19% jobs with state institutions ■Much less likely to support It makes no difference Little less likely to support ■DK/REF Base: RS N=305 40% 36% 17% 6% North RS East RS Ipsos

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