UAE Economic and FY 2012 Financial Results Update
UAE Economic Update
Emirates NBD
Highlights
•
Estimated GDP growth in 2012 at 3.7% on increased oil
production and strong non-oil sector growth
The UAE's PMI data was encouraging, with the overall index
rising to the highest level since May 2011; domestic demand
gained momentum in Q4 2012
Growth of 3.8% expected in 2013, with Abu Dhabi growth
expected to slow slightly in 2013 due to stabilization in oil
production however offset by a 5% expansion in non-oil sectors;
Dubai growth expected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2013 as
manufacturing, tourism and hospitality continue to benefit from
regional demand
Regional demand, buoyed by strong government spending in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman expected to have a positive
knock-on impact on UAE's economy
Oil production trends
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
2009
UAE
UK
Eurozone
India
US
China
2008
3.2% (2.4%) 2.8%
(1.1%) (4.9%) 1.4%
0.4% (4.1%) 1.7%
8.2% 6.4% 8.9%
(0.3%) (3.5%) 3.0%
9.6% 9.2% 10.3% 9.0%
2010
2011E
3.4% 3.7% 3.8%
1.0% 0.0%
0.7%
1.5% (0.5%) 0.0%
7.5% 5.3% 5.5%
2012F 2013F
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
8.0%
7.5%
Japan
(1.1%) (6.3%) 4.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Singapore
1.8% (0.9%) 14.9% 5.0%
1.4%
3.0%
4.9%
1.5%
3.7%
Hong Kong 2.1% (2.5%) 6.8%
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg
UAE PMI - Private Sector Expansion Trends
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
mn bpd
2.2
2.1
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
* Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
UAE Oil Production (lhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
140
120
100
༈ ༄ ༅ ྂ 8༠
USD per barrel
40
bps
45
50
55
60
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Source: HSBC, Markit
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
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