Investor Presentaiton
Shuanghuan Driveline-NEV and industrial
robot-driven growth play
We estimate the automatic transmission gear market size for traditional vehicles, BEVS, PHEVs, and heavy-duty vehicles will
see CAGRS of 9.8%, 24.7%, 45.7%, and 64.5% in 2021-2025E.
2016
2017
Automatic transmission gear market size for traditional vehicles, PHEVs, BEVs, and heavy-duty trucks, 2016-2025E
Automatic transmission for vehicles
21-25E
2018
2019
Sales volume of Auto, units '000
28,028
Penetration % (RHS)
50%
28,879
55%
28,081
60%
25,769
65%
2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
25,311 26,100 27,500 28,000
70%
75%
80% 85%
2024E 2025E
29,000 30,000
90%
CAGR
95%
Sales volume of automatic transmission,
14,014
15,883 16,848 16,750
17,718
19,580
22,000
23,800
26,100
28,500
units '000
Market size, RMB m
21,021
YoY growth % (RHS)
23,825 25,272 25,125
13.3% 6.1% -0.6%
26,577 29,370
5.8% 10.5%
33,000
35,700
12.4%
Auto - PV
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021E
2022E
8.2%
2023E
Sales volume of BEV, units '000
259
470
790
824
949
2,723
Sales volume of PHEV, units '000
79
111
265
226
256
BEV market size, RMB m
130
235
395
412
475
596
1,362
YoY growth % (RHS)
81.2%
68.1%
4.3%
15.2%
PHEV market size, RMB m
8
YoY growth % (RHS)
Total PV market size, RMB m
138
YoY growth % (RHS)
11
40.5%
246
78.9%
27
138.7%
422
71.3%
23
-14.7%
435
3.1%
26
13.3%
500
15.1%
186.9%
60
132.8%
1,421
184.2%
26.9%
39,150
9.7%
2024E
3,312 4,202 5,342 6,577
1,170 1,695 2,189 2,686
1,656 2,101 2,671
21.6%
42,750
9.2%
2025E
9.8%
3,289
24.7%
27.1%
23.1%
Heavy duty truck
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Sales volume, units '000
728
1,112
1,138
1,174
1,617
Penetration rate of AMT for heavy-duty
truck
Market size, RMB m
2021
1,393
10%
557
117
96.3%
1,773
24.8%
2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
1,533 1,686 1,855 2,040
20% 30% 40% 50%
1,226 2,023 2,967 4,080
170
44.9%
2,271
3,557
28.1% 27.3% 23.1%
219
269
45.7%
29.1%
2,890
22.7%
64.5%
Source: Macquarie Research, May 2023
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