Expanding in Circular Economy
FULLY FUNDED TRANSFORMATION AND BASE DIVIDENDS IN 2023-27
EVEN BELOW MID-CYCLE MACRO ENVIRONMENT
MACRO DRIVERS REQUIRED TO REACH
POST DIVIDEND CF BREAK-EVEN
Macro conditions required to generate CF
neutrality:
Oil: ~50 USD/bbl
Natural gas: ~20 EUR/MWh
Refining margin: 4 USD/bbl
► (Original) integrated petrochemical
margin: 400 EUR/t
Representing values that would all be
below 10-year averages
(1) Excluding ongoing M&A, changes in working capital
(2) Excluding the impact of price caps and windfall taxation
~12.0 -12.5
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK ASSUMING CF BREAKEVEN (2023-27, USD BN)1,2
5.5-6.0
~2.0
4,8
3.0-3.5
1,8
~1.8
EBITDA
required to
cover cash-
Sustain Capex Tax/interest Discretionary
FCF
Strategic,
growth capex
+ New/green
FCF
Base dividends
@ 150 HUF DPS
out items
businesses
0
Post base
dividend CF
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