Investor Presentaiton
EBITDA SENSITIVITIES VS 10 YEAR MACRO HISTORY
MACRO CONDITIONS
2021
2022
2023
10Y AVG
Sensitivity
CCS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS - E&P
Est. Clean CCS EBITDA impact
(USD mn)
% of Group
EBITDA 2022
2.6%
Brent crude
+/- 10 USD/bbl
71
101
83
68
~120
(USD/bbl)
Brent price
Natgas price (TTF 1M,
+/- 10 EUR/MWh
Gas Price (TTF)
~55
~35
1.2%
46
131
41
34
EUR/MWh)
MOL Group refinery
Effect of gas price regulation
CCS EBITDA SENSITIVITY TO KEY EXTERNAL DRIVERS - DS
margin (Brent based,
4.1
8.4
9.0
5.6
USD/bbl)
MOL Group petchem
margin (EUR/t)
+/- 1 USD/bbl
MOL Group refinery margin
~110
2.4%
720
481
286
475
+/- EUR 100/t
~125
MOL Group petchem margin
ETS carbon price
(EUR/t)
53
81
90
90
31
-/+ 10 EUR/MWh
~95
Gas price (TTF)
-/+ EUR 10/t
ETS CO2 price
~20
2.7%
2.0%
0.4%
000
Notes:
- Sensitivity calculation; ceteris paribus for current assets assuming full re-pricing of the portfolio; all other premises and volumes remain unchanged
- E&P: gas price sensitivity refers to directly spot gas linked portfolio
- DS : Refinery margin refers to original methodology, CO2 sensitivity assumes unchanged ETS quota allocation
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