Investor Presentaiton
GEORGIAN LARI - TOP PERFORMER IN THE REGION
AS OF 10 NOVEMBER, GEL HAS APPRECIATED BY 3.6% COMPARED TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE YEAR AND BY 8.6% COMPARED TO THE YEAR-TO-DATE LOW
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
USD/TRY
Sep-20
Oct-20
USD/BYR
USD/UAH
USD/GEL
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
USD/RUB
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
THE REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING SINCE MAY 2021,
BUT REMAINS BELOW THE LONG-TERM TREND
135
125
115
105
95
85
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
REER (Jan 2003 = 100)
......Linear (REER (Jan 2003=100))
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
GEL APPRECIATION DRIVERS
Record high remittance inflows, increasing by 28% Y-o-Y in
9M21 (+36% compared to 9M19);
Solid recovery in merchandise exports, exceeding 2019 levels
by 9% in 9M21 (+24% Y-0-Y);
Tourism revenues rebounding to half of 2019 levels for three
consecutive months since July 2021, kickstarting positive
expectations about tourism recovery;
Tight monetary policy (NBG further increased the policy rate
by 50 bps to 10% in August 2021), supporting stronger GEL
and curbing negative expectations;
Rebounding economic activity and significant interest rate
differential aiding accelerated lending in foreign currency, as
FX loans have been steadily increasing since April 2021;
New regulation to reduce reserve requirements on funds
attracted in foreign currency, assisting deposit larisation and
higher demand on GEL.
Georgia Capital PLC | Source: NBG.
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