Investor Presentation
Components of Timberland Return - U.S. South
Return Component
Value Range
Risk to Achieve
Low
Comments
Risk Scale
Cash Return Expectation
High
EBITDA Return
(-) Capex Investment
Current Cash Flow Return
Productivity Gains
HBU Uplift
2.0% -4.5%
~(0.5%)
1.5% - 4.0%
DOO
Other Components of Return
-
0.5% 1.0%
0.0% - 1.0%
Return to Trend Pricing
0.0% 1.5%
Long-Term "Real" Price Growth
0.0% -0.5%
EBITDA yield for Southern timber, including
timber harvest and non-timber income
Average annual cost of replanting /
silviculture; can vary based on site
Varies based on market quality, site index /
productivity, stocking, etc.
Based on improved silviculture; higher gain
potential on lower quality properties
Requires market for rural property;
proximity to population centers is key
Higher "return-to-trend" expectation is
common in more depressed markets
Long-term expectation of real price
increases above inflation
Total Return Expectation
Typical "Real" Return Expectation
(+) Assumed Inflation
4.5% -5.5%
Varies
~2.0%
"Nominal" Return Expectation
6.5% -7.5%
Varies
Rayonier
Investor Presentation | March 2020
Represents typical timberland real discount
rate range
Based on long-term historical spread
between treasuries and TIPS
Represents expected long-term, unlevered
return on timberland investments
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