Scotiabank Investment Thesis

Canadian Household Credit Public policy changes are moderating growth in household credit Total household credit grew at 3.3% Y/Y in nominal terms in Q1 of 2019 vs 2008 peak of 12.4% Y/Y • Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e., cards, HELOCs, unsecured lines, auto loans, etc.) grew at 3.4% Y/Y in Q1 of 2019 vs > 5% in late-2017 Mortgage credit grew at 3.2% Y/Y in Q1 of 2019 vs 2008 peak of 13% Household Credit Growth 25 25 %, 3-month moving average 20 20 15 15 y/y % change 10 5 m/m% change, SA 0 -5 25 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. Consumer Loan Growth 20 20 15 10 %, 3-month moving average Residential Mortgage Growth 25 %, 3-month moving average 20 y/y % change 15 y/y % change 10 5 m/m% change, SA 0 m/m% 5 change, SA 0 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. -5 -5 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada. Scotiabank® 42 42

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