Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
k
KASIKORNTHAI
Household Borrowing
Household Borrowing to GDP
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Old Definition
New Definition
% NPL for Consumption Loans of Thai Commercial Banks
% of Loans
25
% of GDP
19.39
100
89.4 90.5
79.7 79.4
78.4 79.8
71.8
80
59.3
8.8
7.5
7.1
60
12.0
12.7
10.6
23.1 23.1
40
28.9
7.6 8.3
12.3 12.2
22.3 22.3
9.4 9.4
13.4 13.6
25.2 25.6
GOGN
20
15
10
5
2.92
22.3
24.4
19.6
18.9
0
20
L7.7
11.2 15.1
24.5
29.5
33.5
33.7
33.5
38.3
34.3
38.8
2001
2005
2009
2013
2017
1Q21
11.9 13.2 13.9
0
1994
1996 1997 2010
Commercial Banks
Non-Bank Fls
2012 2014 2016
SFIs
Others
2018 2019 2020 1Q21
Saving Cooperatives
--Total
Old Definition: Data from 1991 - 1997: lending from commercial banks and SFIs to individual persons for consumption only
New Definition: Data from 2010 onwards: takes into account individual persons' outstanding loans from all types of financial
institutions, including savings Co-ops and non-banks
Cross-Country Comparison
of Household Debt (as of 2020)
% of GDP
160
129.2
120
80
40
0
103.8 93.3
Debt Service Ratio of Thai households
%
40
27.9 28.1
29.1
28.4
27.2
27.0
30
89.3
69.5 67.9
62.2
20
Australia
South Korea
Malaysia*
Thailand
U.S.
Singapore
China
Source: CEIC and KResearch
10
0
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Source: NSO and KResearch
■Household debt to GDP edged up to 90.5% in 1Q21, and
is expected to rise further in 2021
■Household borrowing to GDP is higher than pre-crisis
level, due to factors such as changes in consumer
behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more
accessible credit market
■Thailand's household debt to GDP is comparable to
other countries*; debt service ratio of Thai households
is still well below 40%, indicating the household debt
situation is unlikely to trigger any problems in the
foreseeable future
■NPL ratio for consumption loans of commercial banks
rose to 2.92% in 1Q21 from 2.85% in 4Q20
Source: BOT, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), National Statistical Office (NSO), CEIC
and KResearch
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155
K
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
KASIKORNTHAI
BOT Macro Prudential Policy
■New frameworks on retail lending announced by BOT to closely monitor systematic risk and implement preventive actions
LTV Criteria for Mortgage Loans
(Effective: January 20, 2020)
New (Including Top-up loans)
Criteria for Credit Card / Personal Loans
(Effective: September 1, 2017)
Credit Cards
Price and
Type of Properties
1st Contract
NEW
LTV Limit
OLD (Apr-19)
LTV Threshold
2nd
Contract
3rd Contract
Onwards
Lending Criteria
New
Min.Monthly Income
Bt15,000
Old
Bt15,000
Personal Loans
New
Old
House
≤ 100%*
< Bt10mn
Condo.
≤ 100%*
≤ 95%
≤ 90%
LTV Limit
80-90%
80-90%
LTV Limit
70%
70%
Credit Line
(times of average
monthly income)
Income Credit Line Credit Line
<Bt30,000 ≤1.5 times
Income
< Bt30,000
< Bt50,000 ≤3 times ≤ 5 times
Credit Line
≤ 1.5 times
<3 institutions
Credit Line
≤ 5 times
> Bt10mn
House &
Condo.
≤ 90%
80%
(LTV Limit)
80%
70%
>Bt30,000
≤ 5 times
1) Under the new framework, LTV limit will be capped at 100% for the first contract of
housing loans, and * loans for furniture and decorations can be added up to 10% of
collaterals (old - no these conditions)
2) For the second contact, LTV limit is 80% if the first contract's installment payments are
less than two years (old - three years); otherwise, LTV limit is 90%
3) Risk weight is 35% if LTV does not exceed its LTV limit; while the risk weight will
increase to 75% for the loans for furniture and decorations of the first contract
Notes:
> Bt50,000 ≤ 5 times
For credit card loans, credit line will be raised to 2 times for customers who have monthly income
below 30,000 Baht per month, effective until December 2021.
Criteria for Car Loans
■ Auto Registration Loans (Effective: February 1, 2019): Auto registration loan
providers to be approved by Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance
Regulated by Fiscal Policy Office
Picofinance*
Regulated by the BOT
August 15, 2019: BOT relaxed the LTV rules for co-signers that have no ownership
interest in the home being purchased
April 2019: BOT tightened LTV criteria for mortgage loans, and raised down payment
for the second contract onwards.
Year 2009: BOT announced revised criteria in 2009-2010 on mortgage loan risk
weights with a different effective date
Year 2008: Risk weights for mortgage loans dropped from 50% to 35% under Basel II
Credit Line
Pico Plus*
Capital Fund
Interest Rate
Ceiling
> Bt5mn
Bt50,000
≤ 36%
> Bt10 mn
< Bt100,00
<36% for first Bt50,000
> Bt50 mn
Depends on debt-servicing ability
<28% for the amount in
excess of Bt50,000
≤24%
<24%
Note: * Picofinance and Pico Plus are allowed to provide loans only in the registered province
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