Serbia Economic and FDI Outlook
Projected GDP Growth in 2024 in the Range of 3-4%,
in a Medium Term in the Range of 4-5%
National Bank of Serbia
Growth in the 2024 led by private consumption
and fixed investments
Chart 5 GDP developments
(y/y growth rates in % and contributions in pp)
In the coming years Serbia will maintain a
strong, sustainable and broad-based growth
Chart 6 GDP growth projection (from February IR)
(y/y growth rates in %)
14
12
10
8
6
3.3
4
1.8
2
0
-2
-1.6
-4
NX
4.5 4.3
-0.9
12
CII
- GDP
7.7
10
8
4.5 4.5
CO
6
2.5
4
2
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026*
*NBS forecast
Thanks to the preserved macroeconomic and financial
stability and the timely and comprehensive package of
economic measures adopted by the National Bank of
Serbia and the RS Government, Serbia recorded a
cumulative growth of real GDP of 9.5% in three years of
crisis (2020-2022).
• According to our new projection, we expect the
acceleration of the growth of the real GDP of Serbia this
year to the range of 3.0-4.0%, with the central value of the
projection of 3.5%.
• Bearing in mind the excellent data of real sector indicators
for the two months of 2024 (primarily industry and retail
trade), in Q1 we expect real GDP growth in the range of
4.0% to 4.5% y/y.
•
-2
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022
2023
2024
2025
In 2024, growth will be driven by domestic demand, where
higher private consumption will be contributed to by continued
growth in employment and wages, and to investment growth by
the implementation of projects in transport, energy and
communal infrastructure. Due to the expected acceleration of
investments and personal consumption, we project that imports
will grow faster than exports, which will result in a negative
contribution to net exports.
We have revised the projection of growth in 2025 and 2026
upwards, to a range of 4%-5%, taking into account the
realization of the investments planned for organizing the
specialized exhibition EXPO 2027.
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