Scotiabank Mexico Business Overview
Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation
•
Global economic activity is weakening as a result of COVID policies in China, still high energy prices, expectations of higher
interest rates and the associated rise in the risk of recession in key economies
Inflation remains a problem almost everywhere in the world. In Canada, we anticipate inflation will average 7.1% this year, with
monthly inflation likely peaking in July. Inflation is then expected to "slow" to a still above target 3.6% in 2023. In the US, we
anticipate inflation will average 8% this year and 4.3% in 2023. Similarly, continued price pressures support forecast of high and
persistent inflation in Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru
A broad range of supply chain indicators and input prices suggest inflation will cool in coming months. Yet, despite that and a
marked downward revision to the growth outlook, incoming inflation has been hotter than anticipated and the extreme tightness
of the labour market suggest that wage pressures will add to inflation this year and next
Given the more persistent strength of inflation, we now forecast that the Bank of Canada will raise its policy rate to 3.5% later this
year and keep it there through 2023. We forecast the Federal Reserve to hike to 3.25% by end of this year and stay there through
2023. Central banks in Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru are all expected to continue their aggressive rate hiking to tame
inflation. Their job is made harder by higher US interest rates, which have fueled depreciations of domestic currencies and led to
rising concerns of exchange rate pass-through price pressures
Canada: Bank of Canada Policy Rate
vs Headline Inflation (%)1
Headline
inflation
Canada Unemployment Rate (%)²
LatAm Unemployment Rates (% SA)³
LatAm PAC Inflation (Y/Y % change)4
24
forecast
14
14
Chile
- Mexico
Colombia
Peru
12
20
Chile
Mexico
Colombia
Peru
12
10
16
10
8
8
12
6
8
4
2 O
58
Policy rate
-1
2
0
-2
18
19
20
21
22
23
15
16
17
18
19
20
21 22
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
06
08
10 12 14
16
18
20
22
9
187
9
1
5432 - O
16
4
1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Ban Rep, DANE; 2 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada; 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics; 4 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics.View entire presentation