Investor Presentation
Forward-looking Information Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Loss¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at January 31, 2022
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
US GDP YOY Growth
Downside Case
Downside Case
3.5%
2.4%
4.8%
2.9%
2.5%
1.8%
3.9%
2.5%
5.0%
3.1%
2.1%
1.3%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
5.9%
5.9%
5.2%
5.5%
6.7%
6.6%
US Unemployment Rate
3.7%
3.8%
3.5%
3.3%
5.2%
4.7%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
5.1%
2.6%
10.3%
4.7%
2.6%
(0.3)%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
2.8%
4.6%
7.2%
6.9%
(4.1)%
(4.9)%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
Forward-Looking Information Variables
13.8%
$73
14.5%
$66
13.3%
$78
14.3%
14.3%
14.8%
$81
$62
$54
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Base Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Upside Case
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at October 31, 2021
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
Base Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
4.2%
2.4%
5.6%
2.8%
3.1%
1.6%
US GDP YOY Growth
4.7%
2.2%
5.8%
3.3%
2.8%
1.3%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
6.4%
5.9%
6.0%
5.5%
7.3%
6.8%
US Unemployment Rate
4.4%
3.9%
3.8%
3.4%
6.0%
5.0%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
6.1%
2.8%
10.7%
6.3%
2.2%
(2.2)%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
6.1%
4.6%
10.3%
8.6%
(0.6)%
(1.7)%
Canadian Household Debt Service Ratio
13.6%
14.4%
13.0%
14.2%
14.1%
14.7%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$69
$64
$74
$81
$56
$54
CIBC
1 See page 62 of the Q1 2022 Quarterly Report for further details.
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