UAE Economic Update
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UAE Economic Update
Emirates NBD
Highlights
The UAE's PMI data in Q113 has broadly maintained the strong levels
achieved in 2012 underpinned by strong domestic demand, although
export orders have recently turned lower.
We expect growth of 3.8% in 2013. Abu Dhabi's growth is expected to
slow slightly this year, reflecting stabilization in oil production after strong
growth in this sector in 2011 and 2012. This should be offset by a solid
5% expansion in the non-oil sectors. In Dubai, we expect growth to
accelerate to 3.9% in 2013 as manufacturing, tourism and hospitality
continue to benefit from regional demand.
We expect regional demand, buoyed by strong government spending in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman to have a positive knock-on impact on the
UAE's economy
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
UAE
UK
(4.8%)
1.3%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
(4.0%)
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.7%
Eurozone
(4.4%)
2.0%
1.4%
(0.6%) (0.5%)
Germany
5.1%
4.2%
3.0%
0.7%
0.5%
US
(3.1%)
2.4%
1.8%
2.2%
2.0%
China
9.2%
10.4%
9.3%
7.8%
7.5%
(5.3%) 4.7%
(0.6%)
2.1%
1.5%
(0.9%) 14.9%
5.3%
1.3%
2.5%
(2.5%)
6.8%
4.9%
1.4%
3.4%
Japan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Oil production trends
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
140
60
120
USD per barrel
1009
45
20
40
0
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg
UAE PMI - Private Sector Expansion Trends
50
55
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Source: HSBC, Markit
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
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