National Economic Recovery Program Update
2019
Source: IMF
2020
2021
2022F
2.8%
3.0%
2019 2020 2021
2023F
USA
4.4%
3.6%
3.2%
3.2%
3.8%
3.6%
2.9%
2.7%
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECT HAS WEAKENED WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
Global growth projection has been significantly revised down, while India and ASEAN-5 prospects are still relatively buoyant
Global Growth Projection (% yoy)
6.0%
WEO Jan WEO Apr WEO Jul WEO Oct
Global Inflation Projection(%
vov)
8.8
·
4.7
3.5
3.2
2022f
2023f
2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Euro Zone
6.5
Economic Growth Projections in Several Major Economies (% YoY)
China
Upside risks:
•
Commodity prices moderation
China's Covid-19 restriction relaxation
Strong recovery momentum in several Asian countries
(i.e. India & ASEAN-5)
Downside risks:
•
•
·
Increasing geopolitical tension
Persistently high inflation in several major countries
Slow economic activities in China, US, and Europ
Narrower policy spaces (fiscal and monetary)
•
Strong US Dollar
2.3
5.7 1.6
1.6
2.2 8.1
8.7
1.0
5.2
6.8
6.0
6.1
3.1
0.5
3.2 4.4
3.7
4.9
5.3 4.9
3.4
3.4
-6.1
-3.4
-6.6
India
ASEAN-5View entire presentation