Scotiabank ESG and Financial Performance Update
Canada: Housing Finances
MORE THAN HALF OF CANADIAN HOUSEHOLDS
DON'T HAVE A MORTGAGE OR HELOC 1
5 YEAR MORTGAGE RATES RESETTING HIGHER
45
% of households (2020 est.)
40
with HELOC
35
11.5
30
25
1.9
20
15
29.1
10
5
0
Owned dwelling w/ mortgage Owned dwelling w/o mortgage
Rented
200
5-year difference, basis points
150
100
50
0
-50
32.8
-100
24.3
-150
-200
15
16
17
18
HIGHER HOME EQUITY IN CANADA 2
forecast*
19
21
22
23
20
24
*Based on Scotiabank Economics forecast of 5-year government of Canada bond yields and historical
spreads between the conventional 5-year mortgage rate and the GoC 5-year bond yield.
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada.
CANADIAN MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES
DECLINING 3
80
equity as % of real estate assets
75
10
Official (excl. HELOCs)
% of total loans past due three
or more months
8
U.S.+foreclosures
70
Cda estimate incl. HELOCs
65
U.S. estimate with NFPS
6
01
excl. HELOCS
60
4
U.S.
55
Official FRB with NFPs
50
(incl. HELOCs)
2
45
Canada
40
40
96
32
92
94 96
98
00
02 04 06
08
10
12
14
16
18 20
20
22
92 94
96 98 00 02 04 06 08
10
12
14 16 18 20 22
1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Mortgage Professionals Canada; 2 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, OSFI, FCAC, Statistics Canada, Federal Reserve Board; 3 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, MBA, CBA.
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