Investor Presentaiton
September 2021
Comments
Despite economic downturn, consumer demand remains firm
Over recent years, consumer demand was consistently
driven by a number of factors, including steady rise in real
wages, improving consumer sentiments (before Q1
2020), growing personal money remittances
30%
20%
10%
•
Despite the economic crisis caused by Covid-19, real
wages growth was mainly resilient and reached 10.2%
y-o-y in July 2021, even though the growth pace has
slowed due to rising inflation
Covid-19 also had a limited impact on the retail trade
which grew with double digits: the turnover increased to
13.0% in July 2021, slightly lower than in June 2021 (13.8%)
Final private consumption grew by 5.3% and 4.4% y-o-y in
Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, respectively, after a 10.0% y-o-y
decline in Q2 2020
Private consumption and consumer sentiments evolution
0%
(10%)
(20%)
(30%)
(40%)
Real wages growth (%) and avg monthly nominal wages (UAH)
16,000
14,345
14,000
12,000
10.2% 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Real wages index
- Average monthly nominal wage, UAH
2,000
0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Retail trade growth (y-o-y)1, %
97.5
100
20%
16%
90
12.2% 11.7% 82.4
15%
14%
80
72.9
70
59.4 60.3
62.2 12.9%
65.1 65.9
10%
12%
10.6%
5%
60 50.6
10%
8.8%
6.9%
5.3%
50
5.34.4%
0%
2.7%
8%
40
(1.8%)
(5)%
5.5%
6%
30
(10)%
4%
20
(10.0%)
(15)%
10
0
2%
(20)%
0%
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2
'16'16'16'16'17'17'17'17'18'18'18'18'19'19'19'19'20'20'20'20'21'21
Consumer sentiments index, eop (lhs)
Private consumption growth y-o-y, % (rhs)
Source GFK, State Statistics Service of Ukraine
10.3%
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
13.5%
3.1%
Note 1 To the corresponding period of the previous year on a cumulative basis
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Apr-20
8.4%
8
BA
Jul-21
13.0%View entire presentation