2022 State Budget: Fiscal Policy and Structural Reform
Climate Change Risk on Indonesia
Indonesia is classified as a country that is vulnerable to the impact of climate change
Indonesia is an archipelagic
country that has >17,000 islands
and it is vulnerable to climate
change risks such as the sea-level
rise
From 2010-2018, national GHG
emissions experienced an increasing
trend of around 4.3% per year..
source Data: KLHK (2020), data diolah
Very Vulnerable
Wulnerable
Intermediate
Less Vulnerable
Least Vulnerable
Unrated Sovereigns
Source: Standard and Poor's 2014
CLIMATE CHANGE RISK
WATER SECURITY
Based on the S&P report (2014), Indonesia is
classified as a country that is very vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change
Increased levels of flooding and severe drought will
exacerbate the scarcity of clean water..
FOOD SECURITY
Changes in the production of biomes and ecosystems
can lead to food scarcity for all creatures..
MHEALTH
Floods can cause the spread of vector-borne diseases
and death from drowning. Rise in temperature can cause
death from heat stroke
DESTRUCTION OF
LAND, SEA, AND
COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS
It is scientifically predicted that
severe forest fires will occur. This
can lead to loss of ecosystems,
biodiversity, and changes in
Biomass. Rising sea surface
temperatures cause the extinction
of coral reefs, seaweed,
mangroves, some biodiversity and
marine ecosystems.
Indonesia experienced a sea-level
rise of 0.8-1.2 cm/year and
around 65% of the population
lives in coastal areas
Reference
IPCC (2014)
Second Biennial
Update Report,
KLHK (2018)
Roadmap NDC
Mitigasi Indonesia,
KLHK (2020)
Roadmap NDC
Adaptasi
Indonesia, KLHK
(2020)
source: Bappenas (2021)
From 1981-2018, Indonesia
experienced a temperature increase
trend of around 0.03 °C per year
source: BMKG (2020)
ESTIMATED COST LOSS and MITIGATION COST
Scope
If each country's NDC target is
achieved, the global temperature rise
can be limited to below 2.0°C
Cost of mitigating climate change to
achieve NDC
Cost of climate change mitigation to
achieve NDC (using mitigation action
cost approach)
Potential economic losses if not
adapting to climate change (sectors
analyzed: agriculture, water, health,
and energy)
Estimated Cost/Impact
Continue to suffer economic losses
of up to 0.2% -2.0% of global GDP
per year
Cumulative mitigation costs reach
IDR 3,461 trillion by 2030
Cumulative mitigation costs from
2020-2030 reach IDR 3,779 trillion
(IDR 343.6 trillion per year)
Potential economic losses reach
0.66% 3.45% of GDP in 2030
Source: Ministry of Finance
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