Digital Banking and Financial Performance Review
Macro-economic Review (Nigeria)
Nigeria's oil production remains significantly below the approved quota amidst concerns of
pipeline vandalization and infrastructural gaps as oil prices hover at US$100 per barrel.
Notwithstanding favourable oil prices, external reserves declined by 8.5% (US$1.37bn) from
US$40.52bn on the last trading day of 2021 to US$37.08bn as of 30 December 2022.
Fixed Income Securities (FIS) market turnover printed at #3.89Bn in 2022 from #3.53Bn
recorded in 2021, representing a 10.20% y-o-y increase. As yields typically trail inflation rates,
we expect yields in the FIS space to remain elevated through 2023 amidst growing debt
financing by the FGN and excess naira liquidity in the system.
117.78
106.71
103.19
14.40
10.20
90.81
8.40
77.23
73.73
68.53
60.99
9.70
8.10
6.30
5.93
5.42
4.82
4.67
40.61
39.93
39.12
38.8
37.34
35.53
34.5
34.13
3.56
3.56
3.54
3.53
5.90
3.28
2.50
4.45
1.72
1.61
1.67
1.56
1.49
1.43
1.30
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
2022
Oil Production
Oil Prices
External Reserves
2.51
2.51
2.29
2.15
2.17
1.34
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
04
2021
2022
91 days
182 days
360 days
The knock-on effects of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as well as structural deficiencies
continue to mount pressure on commodity prices. November 2022 headline inflation surged to
a 17-year high of 21.47%, tapering slightly to 21.34% in December. GDP growth was sustained
over eight consecutive quarters at an average of 3.54% in Q4.
The value of the Naira mirrored the downward trend in reserves as the Naira continued to
depreciate in both the I&E window and parallel markets on the back of declining FX inflows
and growing demand. We expect the foreign exchange rate to remain under pressure.
17.93
17.32
17.71
16.99
15.67
15.74
0.51
5.01
4.03
3.98
3.11
21.3
20.31
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
3.52
400
390
380
Q1
Q2
Q3.
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021
2022
02
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
аз
04
2021
2022
Source: NBS, CBN Data, OPEC, GTCO IR analysis
Inflation (y-o-y%) ■GDP (y-o-y%)
NAFEX
CBN
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