Avalara Q2 2022 Financial Analysis
Avalara Appears to Present an Inaccurate Revenue Multiple
The Vista transaction represents a top decile revenue multiple
compared to the broad set of historical software transactions
U.S. Public Software All-Cash Transaction >$1bn Since 2012 (2)
Median Transaction NTM EV/ Revenue
Avalara
90th percentile
8.6 x
75th Percentile
50th Percentile
7.4x
5.1 x
2.5 x
2012
5.4 x
2013
3.7 x
2014
5.0 x
4.5 x
3.5 x
6.2 x
5.7 x
Vista Transaction implied Multiple
(Prior to the effect of 02 earnings and likely
downward guidance revision):
8.8x
8.0 x
5.2 x
7.2 x
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022YTD
Source: FactSet, Avalora employee FAQ filed as a DEFA 14A as of 20-Sep-2022
Note: Precedent software NTM revenue multiples compiled from FactSet. Avalora transcction implied multiple as disclosed in the employee FAQ fled os o DEFAIJA.
Total Transaction Value / NTM EBITDA1
Per Share Consideration
x Common Shares Outstanding
Total Equity Value
Plus: Total Debt
Less: Cash
Total Transaction Value
Divided by: Analyst consensus NTM Revenue (as of July 31)
TTV/NTM Revenue:
1
2
$93.50
88,557,882
$8,280
3
$1,019
$1,461
$7,838
$957.5
8.2x
Avalara appears to be using an inaccurate revenue multiple. Based on our
calculations (shown below), the Total Transaction Value / NTM EBITDA is 8.2x,1
not 8.8x, as Avalara optimistically states. (If the deal were truly at 8.8x, the value
to shareholders would be $100 per share.)
We find it curious that Avalara would cite as its source for this data an employee
FAQ, rather than analyst consensus estimates, as it uses for comparable
transactions
Again, Avalara appears to be using a 10-year look-back period, which is
inconsistent with the methodology used by its financial advisor in its fairness
opinion²
-
The universe of comparable transactions - all U.S. software companies – is, in
our view, far too broad and likely contains dozens of irrelevant deals
In its fairness opinion, Goldman selected 23 precedent transactions,³ most of
which involved high-growth, SaaS-based businesses like Avalara's
It is worth noting that the median multiples for these selected transactions were
8.9x NTM Revenue, 4 which is substantially higher than the 8.2x NTM Revenue
multiple for Avalara
1 Source: FactSet and Company filings. Data as of August 5, 2022 ("Transaction Date").
2 Source: Avalara's Definitive Proxy Statement, filed with the SEC on September 12, 2022, at page 56 ("Goldman Sachs calculated and compared the implied EV/NTM revenue multiple... at the time each such transaction was announced.").
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