Debt Mutual Fund Strategy

0 2 4 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 6 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 130 110 was down ~11.73% 90 70 50 30 10 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 30 Confidential/Restricted Oct-20 8 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Source:-Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Classification - Restricted Retail Inflation Continued to Surge in September 2022.. While WPI has started to show some deceleration led by consolidation in commodity prices ... Inflation Internals (% YoY) CPI Inflation (% YoY) Fuel and light Headline CPI Upper Limit of Inflation Target 15 7.41 13 7.00 11 9 7 5 3 1 CPI Food India Inflation (% YoY) 18 Core Inflation WPI Inflation YoY (%) ―CPI Inflation YoY (%) 15 12 9 6 3 -1 Brent Crude USD/Barrel Brent Crude oil price increased by ~8.25% MoM in Oct 2022. FYTD23 crude oil price Bloomberg Commodity Index 140 Bloomberg Commodity Index increased by ~1.67% MoM in Oct 2022. FYTD23 the index was down 130 120 ~8.5% Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Source:- Bloomberg Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 70 Jan-21 80 90 100 110 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Apr-22 May-22 Source:-Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation Source:- Bloomberg Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 200- 0 2019:01 400- Sep-22 0 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 (Index, January 2019 = 100) Natural gas index Brent crude oil 800- 600- Wheat Inflation Expectations - IMF staff calculations Natural gas index-July 2022 WEO Update Brent crude oil-July 2022 WEO Update Wheat-July 2022 WEO Update 20:01 21:01 22:01 HDFC BANK RESEARCH Classification - Restricted HDFC BANK We understand your world Source: IMF staff calculations. Note: Natural gas index comprises European, Japanese, and US natural gas price indices. WEO = World Economic Outlook. 23:01 23:04 May-22 Jul-22 Source:- Bloomberg Sep-22

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