Investor Presentaiton
Sustained inflation an obvious risk
Phillips curve historically has held in Ireland
Inflation expectations picking up for consumers and
businesses, industry dropping back
Philips curve has held in Ireland in recent past and
unemployment is below 5%
80
60
40
do
20
0
-20
I
I
I
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
10
9
4 of
2
0
2
00
Nominal COE growth per head*
0
<<
6
- Consumer expectations, Ihs
Industry expectations, lhs
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Services expectations, lhs
- Headline inflation, rhs
Source: DG ECFIN, Eurostat
* Excludes agriculture incomes
2 2023f
Covid
outliers
-2
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
2
4
6
8
10 12 14
16
18 20 22
Unemployment rate
Source: CSO, Eurostat
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