Investor Presentaiton
Public finances - Rosy estimates for 2023
MoF: Macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal variables
Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing
Requirements (HBPSBR)
% of GDP
2022
2023
60
GDP
(% y/y)
Inflation
(% y/y)
2.4
(Consensus: 3.0)
3.0
(Consensus: 1.4)
Actual
GEPC
Pre-GEPC
51.7
50.0
48.9 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4 49.4
50
44.9 44.5
7.7
(Actual: 7.8)
3.2
(Consensus: 0.9)
40
Exchange rate
20.40
20.60
| | | | |
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
(USD/MXN)
(Average 20.10)
(Consensus: 20.80)
Rating agencies
Oil price
(US$/bbl)
93.6
(Average: 90.13)
68.7
Fitch Ratings S&P Global
MOODY'S
A-
A-
A3
Oil production
(kbpd)
1,835
1,872
BBB+
BBB+
Baal
(To Nov: 1,607)
Sovereign
BBB
BBB
Baa2
Sovereign
PEMEX
PSBR
(% of GDP)
-3.8
(Consensus: -3.9)
-4.1
(Consensus: -4.2)
BBB-
Sovereign
BBB-
Baa3
BB+
BB+
Ba1
Investment
grade
threshold
HBPSBR
48.9
49.4
(% of GDP)
BB
BB
Ba2
BB-
PEMEX
BB-
Ba3
PEMEX
Notes: PSBR stands for Public Sector Borrowing Requirements. Consensus comes from Banxico's survey
Source: SHCP, Bloomberg, Banxico, National Hydrocarbon Commission, Rating agencies
DB
Rev
Div
Dep
559
65
NIM
TI
LD
Loan
BAP
Guid
ESG
Eco
Hist
NI
ROE
ICAP
Mkt
App
C/I
GRUPO FINANCIERO
BANORTEView entire presentation