Pet Retail Market and Valuation Outlook
103
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24. 4-Wall Analysis
We did a 4-Wall analysis to understand how Petz stores
perform, using the estimated maturation time in our
model. From this, we saw that Petz stores manage to have
a positive EBITDA throughout their opening time, reaching
an average ROIC of 36% at the end of the four-year
maturity period. Furthermore, we see a positive IRR for the
investment per store, reaching 15% at the end of the
period, with a payback of 3.1 years. We use COGS and
SG&A data per mature store as assumptions and adjust
this for an Opex maturity starting at 80% and reaching
100% at the end of the four years. In addition, we also
assume that sales via omnichannel will have a lower
penetration in the first few years of opening, going from
40% in the first year to 100% in the last year.About
NOPAT, we used the average CAPEX per store (BRL 4,049
mn) and added pre-operating costs and net working
capital, as shown in the model below.
Using the same assumptions, we did for Petz, we could
also simulate a 4-wall analysis using Cobasi's data in 2019.
In the thick of it, we have as leading indicators:
Main Assumptions Petz Store Model
Gross Revenue per Store
Omnichannel
Revenue ex-Omnichannel
Costs per Store
Gross Margin
Gross Profit
Store Expenses
% of Gross Revenue ex-Omnichannel
Store Contribution Margin
Additional SG&A
% of Gross Revenue ex-Omnichannel
D&A
Income Tax
NOPAT
Capex
Pre-Operational
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Maturation Curve - Sales ex-
65%
85%
95%
100%
14,818,690
Omnichannel
1,998,928
Gross Revenue per Store
12,819,763
Omnichannel
6,835,195
Revenue ex-Omnichannel
9,632,149 12,595,887 14,077,756 14,818,690
799,571 1,399,250 1,799,035 1,998,928
8,832,578 11,196,637 12,278,721 12,819,763
46.7%
5,984,568
3,369,785
26.3%
Maturation Curve - Omnichannel
Digital Penetration
40%
8.3%
70%
11.1%
90%
12.8%
100%
13.5%
Costs per Store
5,468,156 6,151,675 6,835,195 6,835,195
2,614,783
133,447
1.0%
433,300
34%
1,637,682
Gross Margin
Gross Profit
Store Expenses
% of Gross Revenue ex-Omnichannel
38.1% 45.1% 44.3% 46.7%
3,364,422 5,044,962 5,443,526 5,984,568
2,695,828 3,032,806 3,369,785 3,369,785
30.5% 27.1% 27.4% 26.3%
Maturation Curve - Opex
4,049,000
Store Contribution Margin
620,253
Net Working Capital
Invested Capital
277,778
% of Gross Revenue ex-Omnichannel
Additional SG&A
4,947,031
D&A
Income Tax
ROIC Mature Store
36%
Main Indicators Cobasi 4-Wall
Appendix 24
Payback
3.9
ROIC
ROIC + SG&A
4-Wall EBITDA
-3.2% 14.0% 14.8% 22.0%
4.5% 21.6% 22.4% 29.7%
Year 0
-4,947,031
Year 1
668,594
Year 2
2,012,156
Year 3
2,073,741
Year 4
2,614,783
-4,947,031 -4,278,437 -2,266,281 -192,540 2,422,243
NOPAT
Capex
Pre-Operational
Net Working Capital
Invested Capital
80%
90%
100% 100%
668,594 2,012,156 2,073,741 2,614,783
7.6% 18.0% 16.9% 20.4%
133,447 133,447 133,447 133,447
433,300 433,300 433,300 433,300
34%
34%
34%
34%
353,197 1,239,948 1,280,594 1,637,682
4,049,000 4,049,000 4,049,000 4,049,000
620,253 620,253 620,253 620,253
277,778 277,778 277,778 277,778
4,947,031 4,947,031 4,947,031 4,947,031
ROIC
7.1%
25.1%
25.9%
33.1%
Margin
1.7% 13.4%
12.7%
16.5%
IRR
15%
ROIC + SG&A
9.8%
27.8%
28.6%
35.8%
4-Wall EBITDA Margin
7.6%
18.0%
16.9%
20.4%
Payback
3.1
Source: Company's Data; Diário Oficial; Team 7View entire presentation