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Investor Presentaiton

Main Joint IMF-WB DSA Take-aways #1 The present value (PV) of PPG external debt breaches the 40 percent of GDP threshold; it rises from 37 percent in 2016 to 42.6 percent by 2019 and to a peak of 44.3 percent in 2022. #2 The debt-service-to-revenue ratio temporarily breaches its 20 percent threshold in 2022 and 2024 when Eurobond payments fall due. #3 All indicators breach their respective thresholds in the case of extreme shocks. #4 The fixed primary balance scenario, which keeps the primary deficit-to-GDP ratio unchanged from 2016 (at 2.2 percent), shows the debt ratio rising throughout the forecast period, highlighting the urgent need for fiscal consolidation.

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