Fertiglobe Financial Overview
Attractive Nitrogen Dynamics with Demand Expected to Exceed Capacity Additions
Ex-China urea capacity additions slow relative to 2015-19
Mt
22.9
Merchant ammonia market structurally tightening
Global ammonia net capacity additions and demand growth, ex-China ex-urea, Mt
17.3
5.7
1.6
10.7
Capacity additions
Demand growth
16.4
4
2015-2019
2020-2021
2022-2026(1)
Demand
Others
USA
Russia
Iran
Nigeria
India
3
2
1
Significant gap between demand growth and new
ammonia supply expected without accounting for
blue/green incremental demand
0
-1
Market deficit does not take into account
higher demand given European shutdowns
and reduction in Russian exports
-2
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 2026
✓ Demand growth expected to exceed supply growth, new supply subject to delays and utilization rates expected to be slow
to ramp up, limiting the impact on the traded market
✓ Significant reversal in market dynamics from over-supply in the last down cycle (2015-2019) of 5.6 million Mt to a
deficit of c.6 million Mt from 2022 - 2026
✓ 11 million Mt new capacity additions 2022 - 2026 includes 3.6 million Mt of capacity in Russia at risk of delays and 4 million
Mt of capacity that has commissioned in 2022
✓ Increased focus on the environment is a barrier to enter this industry, limiting "grey" capacity additions in the US, EU, China
and elsewhere
✓ Good visibility on supply additions given 4-6 years lead time to build a greenfield plant
Fertiglobe
Source: CRU, Company Information
Note: (1) Based on trend demand growth of 1.8% for the period from 2023 to 2026.
An ADNOC and OCI Company
✓ Structural tightening in ammonia with limited net capacity additions more than offset by higher demand growth,
resulting in a supply deficit of 5 million Mt from 2023-2026 compared to a net surplus of 7.5 million Mt in 2015-2019,
providing a strong market backdrop for forward ammonia pricing above high marginal cost floors
✓ Downside risks being monitored given the volatile macro economic environment and high energy complex's impact on
industrial production and ammonia demand, but this should be partially offset by lower supply from Russia and Europe
✓
Further upside for ammonia from the expected incremental demand for clean ammonia in new applications across a
range of sectors including marine fuel and power, and as a hydrogen carrier
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