Inflation Control and Financial Facilities Strategy
National Economic Growth Improved in the Q3-2020
7.0
5.0
Strong GDP Growth¹
%
IQoQ
YoY
5.124.944.935.054.824.744.775.174.925.185.014.945.015.015.065.195.065.275.175.185.075.055.024.97
3.27
3.31
3.14
3.0
1.0 0.04
4.01
3.19
3.09
3.06
(0.36)
(0.30)
(1.81)
(0.41)
(1.70)
(1.69)
-1.0
(0.16)
(1.73)
-3.0
(2.07)
-5.0
-7.0
2.97
(0.52)
(1.74)
(2.41
5.05
(4.19)
(3.49)
(532)
01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 01 Q2 Q3
2014
2015
2016
2017
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
2018
India
2019
2020
8.80
7.40
•
•
National economic growth improved in the third quarter of 2020 in
response to increasing realisation of government stimuli along with early
signs of greater public mobility and stronger global demand. Indonesia's
economy grew 5.05% (qtq) in the third quarter of 2020, rebounding from a
4.19% (qtq) contraction in the previous period. Annually, a shallower 3.49%
(yoy) contraction pointed to domestic economic improvements after
contracting 5.32% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2020.
Domestic economic gains occurred across nearly all GDP components on
the expenditure side. Higher realisation of government stimuli, primarily in
the form of social assistance disbursements, procurement of goods and
services as well as regional transfers and village fund disbursements, raised
government consumption significantly in the third quarter of 2020,
expanding 9.76% (yoy) after contracting 6.9% (yoy) in the second quarter
of 2020. Furthermore, government stimuli and increasing public mobility
have reduced the household consumption contraction to 4.04% (yoy).
Investment is also performing better, recording a shallower 6.48% (yoy)
contraction, primarily on the back of nonbuilding investment. In addition,
the export contraction also improved to 10.82% (yoy) in line with increasing
public mobility and stronger economic performance in Indonesia's main
trading partners, China in particular.
The recent economic gains were felt across most sectors, led by those
associated with health as well as work-from-home and school-from-home
activities, which maintained positive growth, including Information and
6.10 Communications, Health and Social Services as well as Education Services.
Moreover Growers mobility has prompted moderate gains in terms of
Accommodation and Food Service Activities as well as Transportation and
Storage, both of which experienced shallower contract 020 GDP growthon, the
Manufacturing Industry, Construction and Trade posted gain YoY)
4.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
**
2019
2020 2021*
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2020; * indicates estimated figure
2.
2020 Budget (Presidential Regulation 72/2020)
Bank Indonesia
IMF (WEO October 2020)
-0,4-1,0
0,9-1,9
-1.5
0.0
ADB (ADOS September 2020)
-1.0
Consensus Forecast (November 2020)
-2.0
60
60
World Bank (GEP June 2020)View entire presentation