Investor Presentaiton
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INFLATION TO STAY ABOVE TARGET IN 2021
Inflation y-o-y vs. inflation target
Sources: NBG, GeoStat
Inflation has picked up pace since April 2021 and reached 11.9% in July on the
back of supply side pressures as well as recovering domestic demand. We
expect inflation to decelerate from the 2nd half of 2022.
12
11.9
13
10
11
8
9
Price Indices
Source: GeoStat
Jun-05
Dec-05
90-un
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Jun-08
Dec-08
60-unr
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
mow
M2 vs. inflation, y-o-y,%
Sources: Geostat, NBG
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Jun-17
Sep-19
Dec-
Dec-17
Dec-19
Jun-18
Mar-20
Dec-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Dec-19
Sep-20
Jun-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Mar-21
Jun-21
M2 Y/Y % LHS
Inflation Y/Y % RHS
1,600
16.0
14.0
1,400
12.0
10.0
8.0
1,200
6.0
1,000
4.0
2.0
800
(2.0)
600
(4.0)
(6.0)
400
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Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Headline Inflation
Monthly Inflation
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Average monthly nominal earnings
Source: Geostat
Monthly nominal earnings increased by 4.6% y-o-y in 1Q21
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120
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III 20
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Feb-19
Apr-19
121
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
GEL
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
Core Inflation
12
10
8
22% 6+ NON
4
2
0
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