Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
Billion Baht
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Other Figures
Thai Bond Market Size (Gov't and Private bonds)
16,000
88% 88% 100%
%
14,000
12,000
63% 64% 65% 69% 70% 71% 74% 76% 79% 78% 79%
90%
80%
57% 56%
70%
10,000
60%
8,000
50%
6,000
40%
% to GDP
30%
4,000
2,000
0
20%
10%
0%
100
23322IIOO
50505050
3.5
3.0
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Bond Yields
2.5
2.0
2.12
1.51 1.64
1.5
1.35
145
1.0
0.46 0.48 0.51 0.57
0.67
0.02
0.5
0.0
6M 1Y 2Y
-*-Dec 18
Dec 19
3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y
-Dec 20 -Jul 20,2021
Current Account and FX Reserve
1200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1H21
Thai Bond Outstanding (LHS) --Bond Market Size to GDP (RHS)
Foreign Holdings of Thai Bonds
Billion Baht
1000
800
600
400
1%
2%
200
94
0
% of Total Bond Outstanding
8% 8%
8% 8%
7%
7%
6%
7%
6%
6%
6%
4%
וווווווו
៩៩៩៩៩៖៖៖៖៖
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
932
918
925
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1H21
1%
0%
Foreign Holding Outstanding (LHS) ―% of Thai Bond Market (RHS)
USD Billion
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
2005
2007
Current Account (LHS)
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Other Figures
Million Baht
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
17.7 17.4 18.0 18.3
19.4
1,000,000
0
Housing Loans / GDP
% to GDP
400,000
26.6 27.1 30
200,000
21.0 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.6 23.2
25
20
20
0
1.709,897
1,885,139
2,034,137
2,263,552
2,510,012
2,783,129
3,021,811
3,251,488
3,448,852
3,706,397
3,918,565
4,172,556
4,228,272
2009
2012
2015
2018
Housing Loans for Personal Consumption (LHS)
--% Housing Loans to GDP (RHS)
15
10
USD247bn (Jun21) 300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
USD-7bn (May21)
0
2009
2011
2013
FX Reserves (RHS)
2015
2017
2019
1H21
Million Baht
600,000
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Credit Card Loans/GDP
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
196,59
216,427
228,903
261,553
290,425
318,141
333,493
360,096
394,123
% to GDP
3.5
2.9
2.7
2.7 3.0
418,747
457,090
449,733
417,926
2.5
O5
332211σ o
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2009
2012
2015
2018
1Q21
Credit Card Loan Outstanding (LHS) Credit Card Loan to GDP (RHS)
Note 1) Credit card loans represent outstanding credit card loans from commercial banks and non-banks,
excluding SFIs, saving cooperatives and others financial Institutions
Million Baht
0
800,000
1Q21
Note Housing loans represent outstanding housing loans for personal consumption
granted to individuals of householders by financial institutions (including
Commercial banks, Finance companies, Credit financiers, SFIs, and Insurance
companies but excluding Saving Cooperatives and others financial Institution)
Source: BOT, NESDC
600,000
2.2
400,000
200,000
Personal Loans/GDP
% to GDP
3.7 3.7
4.0
3.4
3.5
1.7
1.9 2.1
2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
213,74
187,4
257,129
299,139
312,851
318,354
332,996
354,243
383,303
579,911
580,383
578,883
1.0
0.5
0.0
2017
2019
1Q21
▬▬▬▬▬▬% Personal Loans to GDP (RHS)
0
2009
2011
2013
Personal Loan Outstanding (LHS)
2015
Note: 1) Personal Loans represent outstanding personal loans under supervision (including
commercial banks and non-banks, excluding SFIs, saving cooperatives and others
financial Institution)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
160
159
USD BillionView entire presentation