Q4 2019 Financial Performance
Canadian Housing Market
Return to equilibrium
Significant Moderation in Price Growth*
25
20
Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price
Index Y/Y Percentage Change
Volume of Home Sales Near 10-Year Average*
Units, 000s
50
45
Monthly home sales
15
10
-5
-10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
40
40
35
30
25
25
10-year monthly moving avg.
20
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19
15 16 17 18 19
Canada's Five Largest Metropolitan Areas*
10
MLS Home Price Index Benchmark
8
Price Y/Y Percentage Change
7.61
6
4
5.82
Average
2
0.46
0
-2
-4
2 468
-6
-8
GTA
-6.44
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Seasonally adjusted
Decline in Share of High-Risk Mortgages
25
20
15
% Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income
ratio greater than 450%
-2.27
10
2.44
Mortgage
insurance
5
rules
tightened
B-20
guideline
revised
0
Edmonton
Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16
High-ratio mortgages
Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17
Low-ratio mortgages
Jun-18
Dec-18
Total mortgages
GVA
Montreal Calgary
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
*Actual - not seasonally adjusted
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bank of Canada Financial System Review 2019.
26View entire presentation