Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck
Intro
Net Asset Value
triangulate valuations that does not indirectly incorporate bid premiums
into the valuations of our investments. To address this volatility we also
reference more traditional care businesses such as United Health (UNH)
and Humana (HUM) in our calibrations.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to
SEK 2,787m, down some 25 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue
multiple has been contracted by around 10 percent in the quarter, relative
to the 20 percent contraction in the value-based care peer group and
largely flat multiples in the more traditional care provider reference group.
This leads Cityblock to being valued at a slight premium to the value-based
care peer group average. The company is significantly outpacing its
listed value-based care benchmarks on revenue growth while proving
sustainable gross margins in its more established cohorts. Cityblock is
consolidating its footprint, which impacts revenues negatively in the short
term in favor of gross margin improvements in the medium-term. The
shift bears a net negative effect on our valuation this quarter. Our write-
down in dollar terms is augmented by the strengthening Swedish krona.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 2 percent shareholding in VillageMD
amounts to SEK 4,606m, up some 9 percent in the quarter. During the
fourth quarter of 2022, VillageMD acquired the leading care provider
Summit Health, financed with a mix of equity and debt. The equity com-
ponent valued the combined company at an approximate 10 percent
premium to our fair value in this quarter. In 2023, the combined com-
pany is expected to be EBITDA positive and to grow faster than the
value-based care peer group on average. Our NTM revenue multiple has
contracted by around 10 percent relative to the 20 percent contraction
in the value-based care peer group, leading to VillageMD being valued
at a somewhat increased premium to the peer average compared to the
previous quarter. Our write-up in dollar terms is somewhat muted by the
strengthened Swedish krona.
VIRTUAL CARE
Virtual Care consists of healthcare businesses that deliver general or spe-
cialized care services through virtual channels, and leverage technology
such as Al to improve the care outcomes for their users. We benchmark
these businesses in part against a peer set of listed telemedicine compa-
KINNEVIK
Interim Report Q4 2022
Portfolio Overview
Sustainability
nies, including generalists such as Teladoc (TDOC) and Amwell (AMWL),
and more vertical players such as Hims & Hers (HIMS) and Lifestance (LFST).
The companies in this peer set grew revenues by around 30 percent on
average in 2022 with gross margins of 45 percent, and trade at an average
1.5x NTM revenues. Our businesses are growing revenues more than 7x
faster with comparable gross margins, and are better positioned for long-
term growth compared to their more mature listed peers. Virtual Care is
nascent in itself and the current cohort of listed peers largely consists of
companies facing structural challenges that our unlisted companies aim
to disrupt. As a consequence, our Virtual Care companies are valued at
a material premium to the peer group, at around 8-10x NTM revenues
on average, more in line with SaaS businesses with more similar financial
profiles to those of our unlisted virtual health businesses.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Spring Health
amounts to SEK 1,042m. The NTM revenue multiple has been contracted
by around 6%, fairly in line with the development for the average of listed
telemedicine benchmarks, against which Spring Health is valued at a
significant premium on forward-looking multiples. The valuation remains
at a slight discount to the NTM revenue multiples of SaaS businesses with
similar financial profile to that of Spring Health. The underlying compa-
ny valuation is almost back in line with the valuation in the company's
funding round in the third quarter of 2021, in which Kinnevik made its
first investment in the company.
PLATFORMS & MARKETPLACES
Our Platforms and Marketplace businesses form the most diverse group
of investments in the NAV categorization introduced in 2022. The group
spans online grocer businesses such as Mathem and Oda with mid-30s
gross margins, to pure marketplaces like Omio with gross margins almost
twice as high. Accordingly, these businesses are valued against different
peer sets. The average peer group valuation level is around 1x NTM reve-
nues for lower-margin e-commerce peers that on average typically grew
around 15 percent in 2022, and around 3x NTM revenues on average for
higher margin marketplace peers that on average grew by around 30
percent in 2022. Our lower-margin Platforms & Marketplaces companies
are in general valued at discounts to their respective peer group aver-
Financial Statements
Other
ages, reflective of peers' higher level of profitability not being offset by
commensurately higher growth rates. Our higher margin companies are
generally valued in line with or at narrow premiums to their respective
peer group average, reflective of our companies' ability to grow materially
faster than peers while at similar or higher levels of profitability.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 13 percent shareholding in Instabee
amounts to SEK 1,736m, down 28 percent in the quarter. The set of peers
used to benchmark Instabee consists of logistics technology and mobility
businesses such as InPost (INPST.AS), DoorDash (DASH) and Uber (UBER).
We mark Instabee at a narrow and decreasing premium in relation to the
peer group's more richly valued constituents, such as InPost, warranted
by Instabee's materially higher growth rate solidified by the company's
profitability and stronger outlook. We have reassessed our estimations of
the company's near-term topline outlook in the current economic climate,
which is the main driver behind this quarter's downward valuation revision.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 31 percent shareholding and other interests
in Mathem amounts to SEK 379m, flat in the quarter when adjusting for
our in-quarter investment. The valuation is based on revenue multiples
of a composite peer group of inventory holding e-commerce retailers
and meal kit businesses such as Zalando (ZAL.DE), Boozt (BOOZT.ST)
and HelloFresh (HFG.DE), as well as estimates of market valuations of
Ocado's (OCDO.L) retail business. The assessed valuation implies a mul-
tiple of 0.5x the company's revenues during the last twelve months as at
30 September 2022 (as disclosed on p. 12 but pro forma the acquisition
of Mat.se), but naturally takes the forward outlook into account. On an
NTM revenue multiple basis, the valuation is at a >30 percent discount
to the key peers referenced above.
The fair value of Kinnevik's 28 percent shareholding in Oda amounts
to SEK 940m, down around 25 percent in the quarter when excluding our
SEK 471m investment in the quarter. The valuation is based on revenue
multiples of the same composite peer group used in valuing Mathem.
The assessed valuation slightly below where the company raised new
financing during the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease in fair value is
driven primarily by a contracting revenue multiple, calibrated against the
recent financing round, and an enlarged incentive program. The assessed
valuation implies a multiple of around 0.8x the company's revenues
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