Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck slide image

Kinnevik Results Presentation Deck

Intro Net Asset Value triangulate valuations that does not indirectly incorporate bid premiums into the valuations of our investments. To address this volatility we also reference more traditional care businesses such as United Health (UNH) and Humana (HUM) in our calibrations. The fair value of Kinnevik's 8 percent in Cityblock amounts to SEK 2,787m, down some 25 percent in the quarter. The NTM revenue multiple has been contracted by around 10 percent in the quarter, relative to the 20 percent contraction in the value-based care peer group and largely flat multiples in the more traditional care provider reference group. This leads Cityblock to being valued at a slight premium to the value-based care peer group average. The company is significantly outpacing its listed value-based care benchmarks on revenue growth while proving sustainable gross margins in its more established cohorts. Cityblock is consolidating its footprint, which impacts revenues negatively in the short term in favor of gross margin improvements in the medium-term. The shift bears a net negative effect on our valuation this quarter. Our write- down in dollar terms is augmented by the strengthening Swedish krona. The fair value of Kinnevik's 2 percent shareholding in VillageMD amounts to SEK 4,606m, up some 9 percent in the quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2022, VillageMD acquired the leading care provider Summit Health, financed with a mix of equity and debt. The equity com- ponent valued the combined company at an approximate 10 percent premium to our fair value in this quarter. In 2023, the combined com- pany is expected to be EBITDA positive and to grow faster than the value-based care peer group on average. Our NTM revenue multiple has contracted by around 10 percent relative to the 20 percent contraction in the value-based care peer group, leading to VillageMD being valued at a somewhat increased premium to the peer average compared to the previous quarter. Our write-up in dollar terms is somewhat muted by the strengthened Swedish krona. VIRTUAL CARE Virtual Care consists of healthcare businesses that deliver general or spe- cialized care services through virtual channels, and leverage technology such as Al to improve the care outcomes for their users. We benchmark these businesses in part against a peer set of listed telemedicine compa- KINNEVIK Interim Report Q4 2022 Portfolio Overview Sustainability nies, including generalists such as Teladoc (TDOC) and Amwell (AMWL), and more vertical players such as Hims & Hers (HIMS) and Lifestance (LFST). The companies in this peer set grew revenues by around 30 percent on average in 2022 with gross margins of 45 percent, and trade at an average 1.5x NTM revenues. Our businesses are growing revenues more than 7x faster with comparable gross margins, and are better positioned for long- term growth compared to their more mature listed peers. Virtual Care is nascent in itself and the current cohort of listed peers largely consists of companies facing structural challenges that our unlisted companies aim to disrupt. As a consequence, our Virtual Care companies are valued at a material premium to the peer group, at around 8-10x NTM revenues on average, more in line with SaaS businesses with more similar financial profiles to those of our unlisted virtual health businesses. The fair value of Kinnevik's 5 percent shareholding in Spring Health amounts to SEK 1,042m. The NTM revenue multiple has been contracted by around 6%, fairly in line with the development for the average of listed telemedicine benchmarks, against which Spring Health is valued at a significant premium on forward-looking multiples. The valuation remains at a slight discount to the NTM revenue multiples of SaaS businesses with similar financial profile to that of Spring Health. The underlying compa- ny valuation is almost back in line with the valuation in the company's funding round in the third quarter of 2021, in which Kinnevik made its first investment in the company. PLATFORMS & MARKETPLACES Our Platforms and Marketplace businesses form the most diverse group of investments in the NAV categorization introduced in 2022. The group spans online grocer businesses such as Mathem and Oda with mid-30s gross margins, to pure marketplaces like Omio with gross margins almost twice as high. Accordingly, these businesses are valued against different peer sets. The average peer group valuation level is around 1x NTM reve- nues for lower-margin e-commerce peers that on average typically grew around 15 percent in 2022, and around 3x NTM revenues on average for higher margin marketplace peers that on average grew by around 30 percent in 2022. Our lower-margin Platforms & Marketplaces companies are in general valued at discounts to their respective peer group aver- Financial Statements Other ages, reflective of peers' higher level of profitability not being offset by commensurately higher growth rates. Our higher margin companies are generally valued in line with or at narrow premiums to their respective peer group average, reflective of our companies' ability to grow materially faster than peers while at similar or higher levels of profitability. The fair value of Kinnevik's 13 percent shareholding in Instabee amounts to SEK 1,736m, down 28 percent in the quarter. The set of peers used to benchmark Instabee consists of logistics technology and mobility businesses such as InPost (INPST.AS), DoorDash (DASH) and Uber (UBER). We mark Instabee at a narrow and decreasing premium in relation to the peer group's more richly valued constituents, such as InPost, warranted by Instabee's materially higher growth rate solidified by the company's profitability and stronger outlook. We have reassessed our estimations of the company's near-term topline outlook in the current economic climate, which is the main driver behind this quarter's downward valuation revision. The fair value of Kinnevik's 31 percent shareholding and other interests in Mathem amounts to SEK 379m, flat in the quarter when adjusting for our in-quarter investment. The valuation is based on revenue multiples of a composite peer group of inventory holding e-commerce retailers and meal kit businesses such as Zalando (ZAL.DE), Boozt (BOOZT.ST) and HelloFresh (HFG.DE), as well as estimates of market valuations of Ocado's (OCDO.L) retail business. The assessed valuation implies a mul- tiple of 0.5x the company's revenues during the last twelve months as at 30 September 2022 (as disclosed on p. 12 but pro forma the acquisition of Mat.se), but naturally takes the forward outlook into account. On an NTM revenue multiple basis, the valuation is at a >30 percent discount to the key peers referenced above. The fair value of Kinnevik's 28 percent shareholding in Oda amounts to SEK 940m, down around 25 percent in the quarter when excluding our SEK 471m investment in the quarter. The valuation is based on revenue multiples of the same composite peer group used in valuing Mathem. The assessed valuation slightly below where the company raised new financing during the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease in fair value is driven primarily by a contracting revenue multiple, calibrated against the recent financing round, and an enlarged incentive program. The assessed valuation implies a multiple of around 0.8x the company's revenues 31
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