Investor Presentaiton
October 12, 2021
LAMOSA: VALUATION EXERCISES
GBM
PERPETUITY EBITDA
Our perpetual EBITDA estimate of P$7 billion seems conservative given the structure of the market,
where all players are practically sold out. Hence, for those who think LAMOSA's staggering market
share could shrink, it might, perhaps; however, in a growing industry, it would have a smaller share of
a bigger pie. In conclusion, we feel comfortable with our DCF valuation since our perpetuity EBITDA
considers only LAMOSA's current ceramic tiles capacity utilization rates, even when the company has
continued to expand as the market gets bigger.
Perpetual EBITDA (MXN Billion)
Ceramic Tiles Capacity Utilization Rates
RELATIVE VALUATION
LAMOSA also seems attractive from a relative valuation standpoint. Even when accounting for zero
EBITDA growth vs. 2020 figures, investors get a 10% upside potential from current prices. Meanwhile,
when considering the 2021e EBITDA or our perpetual exercise, returns range between 60 and 120%. For
more details on industry EV/EBITDA valuations, please refer to slide 64 and 65.
LAMOSA 2022e Price Target
Ceramic Tiles
EBITDA Mg.
LAMOSA
5Y Avg.
Long-Term
GBMe
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
18.0%
5.1
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.1
19.0%
5.3
5.6
5.8
6.1
6.3
20.0%
5.5
Long-Term GBMe
21.0%
5.7
Record High (2021)
27.0%
6.9
579
5.8
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.4
Target
EV/EBITDA
EBITDA (P$ Billion)
Year
2020*
Year
2021e
Perpetual
EBITDA
5.0
6.0
6.8
7.0
8.0
7.0x
77
97
112
116
136
7.5x
84
105
122
126
147
8.0x
91
114
131
136
158
8.5x
98
122
141
146
169
9.0x
105
130
150
155
181
*Includes Grupo Roca ceramic tiles acquisition
WHAT THE MARKET IS DISCOUNTING AT CURRENT PRICES (P$70/SHARE)
To us, the market is being very aggressive by discounting a negative growth rate ("g") for LAMOSA at
the current prices. Moreover, an implicit zero g (that would still yield significant upside potential) seems
overly pessimistic for an industry that has outperformed the GDP growth of both the country and the
construction sector on account of its favorable fundamentals.
Price at Different Growth Rates
Source: GBM Research
Upside
75.4%
Upside
27.5%
121
Today's Price
0.0%
88
70
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
LAMOSA/CERAMIC: THE ROAD TO GROWTH IS PAVED WITH TILES. | 39View entire presentation