Investor Presentaiton
June 2021
Prudent monetary policy implemented by independent regulator
Medium-term
consumer inflation
target range: 5%+/-1%
Y-o-y inflation as of
May 2021: 9.5%
Comments
The NBU has significantly softened its monetary policy
maintaining the cycle of key policy rate cuts until June
2020 on the back of UAH appreciation and decelerated
inflation
During July 2020 - February 2021, the NBU has decided to
keep its key policy rate at 6% to curb the price growth as the
economy recovers in 2021-2022, while leaving room for its
further decrease
In March-April 2021, the key policy rate was raised twice by
1.5 p.p. in total in order to respond to the growing inflation
In March-May 2021, consumer inflation came out higher than
had been projected previously. Inflationary pressures were
generated by the rise in prices for certain foods and fuels and
sustained consumer demand.
CPI expectations for the following 12 months
Consumer price index (CPI) change and key policy rate
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
NBU's medium-term
inflation target range
CPI, y-o-y, %
Key policy
rate, %
UAH/US$ and UAH/EUR exchange rates dynamics
Source NBU
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Mar-18
Banks
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Businesses
38.0
36.0
34.0
32.0
9.7%
30.0
7.0%
6.6%
28.0
6.5%
26.0
24.0
22.0
20.0
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Households
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
- Financial analysts
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Notes
1
As of June 24, 2021
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
EUR
US$
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
10
BA
32.41
27.21
Mar-21
May-21
9.5%
7.5%View entire presentation