2023 Production Guidance and Budget Highlights
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In Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading, the Company is progressing with its reliability enhancement project
that is targeted to extend the maintenance cycle from once per year to once every second year.
This project targets to increase the zero decline, high value SCO production capacity by approximately
5,000 bbl/d starting in 2023. In 2025, production capacity increases to approximately 14,000 bbl/d of
SCO with no turnaround necessary.
2023 Production Guidance
The Company is targeting strong year over year production growth of approximately 56,000 BOE/d, or 4%, over
targeted 2022 levels, based on the midpoint of our 2023 production guidance range of approximately
1,330,000 BOE/d to 1,374,000 BOE/d.
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Our 2023 targeted production mix is balanced, consisting of approximately 44% of high value light and
synthetic crude oil, 29% bitumen and heavy crude oil and 27% natural gas, based on the midpoint of our
production guidance range.
Liquids production, including SCO, is targeted to range from 969,000 bbl/d to 1,001,000 bbl/d. The Company's
long life low decline production represents approximately 78% of its total targeted liquids production.
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Thermal and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading production is targeted to range between 705,000 bbl/d and
729,000 bbl/d, with the midpoint representing a 5% increase over 2022 targeted levels.
Conventional E&P liquids production is targeted to range between 264,000 bbl/d and 272,000 bbl/d, with
the midpoint representing a 4% increase over 2022 targeted levels.
Natural gas production is targeted to range between 2,170 MMcf/d to 2,242 MMcf/d, with the midpoint
representing a 5% increase over 2022 targeted levels.
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Based on the midpoint of the Company's 2023 production guidance, Canadian Natural's diversified natural
gas sales points maximizes netbacks through the export of approximately 36% of its natural gas
production to North American markets outside of AECO and sold internationally, the equivalent use of
approximately 36% of its natural gas production in its operations and the remaining 28% sold at
AECO/Station 2 pricing.
Daily Production Volumes
(before royalties)
Natural gas (MMcf/d)
Conventional E&P Crude Oil & NGLs (Mbbl/d)
Thermal and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading (Mbbl/d)(1)
Total Liquids (Mbbl/d)
Total MBOE/d
2022
Forecast
2023
Budget
2,112
258
2,170 - 2,242
264-272
685
705-729
943
969-1,001
1,296
1,330-1,374
(1) Reflects planned downtime for turnaround activities at Horizon, Scotford and Canadian Natural's 70% ownership in the AOSP.
Note: Rounded to the nearest 1,000 bbl/d. See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions, pricing assumptions and Non-GAAP and other financial
measure disclosure.
2023 Net Capital Expenditures
($ millions)
Conventional E&P (excluding Thermal)
Thermal In Situ
Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading
Abandonment & Reclamation
Total
Base
2,040 $
Strategic
Growth
75 $
Total
2,115
375 $
510 $
885
1,345 $
435 $
1,780
430 $
-
$
430
$
4,190 $
1,020 $
5,210
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
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