New Mexico Economic Development and Revenue Strategy
Methodology for Current PFM Study
PFM first used the December 2021 consensus revenue estimates, the most
recently published short-term revenue estimates at the time of the presentation,
which projected State revenues through FY 2026.
◆ A PFM analysis of historical CREG December revenue estimates compared to
actual revenues collected in the subsequent fiscal year shows that the CREG is
generally accurate or even conservative in their short-term forecasts.
• The short-term consensus revenue estimates have since been updated twice, in
August 2022 and December 2022, but there has been no corresponding update
to the long-term outlook, which may become an annual exercise.
Then, for the years FY 2027 through FY 2037, PFM applied various growth rates
embedded in the "Long-Term Outlook" presentation to the short-term revenue
estimates to infer a 15-year baseline, accounting for a CREG analysis of the
decline in direct severance revenue as a percentage of General Fund revenues
through FY 2050.
© PFM
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