Investor Presentaiton
June 2021
Despite economic downturn, consumer demand remains firm
Comments
Over recent years, consumer demand was consistently
driven by a number of factors, including steady rise in real
wages, improving consumer sentiments (before Q1
2020), growing personal money remittances
Despite economic crisis caused by Covid-19, real wages
growth was mainly resilient and reached 19.7% y-o-y in
Apr 2021
30%
20%
10%
0%
(10%)
Covid-19 also had limited impact on the retail trade: its
turnover growth increased to 14% in Apr 2021 from just
above 8% as of Dec 2020
(20%)
(30%)
(40%)
Final private consumption grew by 5.3% and 4.4% y-o-y in
Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, respectively, after a 10.0% y-o-y
decline in Q2 2020
Private consumption and consumer sentiments evolution
Real wages growth (%) and avg monthly nominal wages (UAH)
16,000
13,54314
14,000
19.7%
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Real wages index
Average monthly nominal wage, UAH
2,000
0
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
⠀⠀
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Retail trade growth (y-o-y)¹, %
100
97.5
20%
16%
90
12.2%
11.7%
82.4
15%
14%
80
70
59.4 60.3
62.2 12.9%
65.1
67.8 10%
12%
10.6%
60 50.6
5%
10%
8.8%
6.9%
50
5.3%
2.7%
4.4% 0%
8%
40
(1.8%)
(5)%
6%
30
20
(10)%
4%
(10.0%)
10
(15)%
2%
0
(20)%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
'16'16'16'16'17 '17 '17 '17 '18 '18 '18 '18'19'19'19'19'20 '20 '20 '20 '21
Consumer sentiments index, eop (lhs)
Private consumption growth y-o-y, % (rhs)
Source GFK, State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
5.5%
Dec-18
Mar-19
10.3%
14.0%
13.5%
3.1%
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Note 1 To the corresponding period of the previous year on a cumulative basis
Source State Statistics Service of Ukraine
Dec-20
8.4%
Mar-21
BA
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