PTT Group Strategic Growth

2021 Petroleum and Gas Outlook ptt $/bbl Dubai 100 20 Petroleum 80 15 + OPEC+ crude oil production cut and Saudi Arabia's additional voluntary cut + Bullish sentiment from vaccination and economic stimulus package - 60 10 Market sentiment was pressured by 2nd wave of COVID-19 40 5 20 0 + Singapore light distillate inventories back to normal level 0 -5 1020 2020 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 Dubai HSFO Mogas VLSFO Gasoil Cracking (RHS) Mogas + Improved demand on expectation of easing lockdown restrictions from end of 1Q21 onwards More supply from the ramp-up in refinery runs followed demand recovery Gasoil + Demand expected to recover in 2H21 due to economic recovery. However, the resurgence of COVID-19 suppressed on industrial activity in the beginning of 2021 Price Y2020 4Q2020 1Q2021(E) Dubai 42.2 44.6 55-60 Y2021(E) 55-60 + Lower supply as refineries shifting gasoil yield to produce more Jet/kerosene towards the end of the from Aviation sector recovered Mogas 46.6 48.7 60-65 62-67 Gasoil 48.4 48.3 59-64 62-67 HSFO (3.5%S) 39.2 44.1 51-56 51-56 VLSFO (0.5%S) 53.4 54.5 67-72 67-72 Singapore GRM 0.4 1.2 1.2-2.2 1.5-2.5 $/MMBTU 12 Gas/LNG 10 8 6 4 2 Asian Spot LNG Henry Hub 0 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 Price Y2020 4Q2020 1Q2021(E) Asian Spot LNG 4.3 8.0 10.5 Y2021(E) 6.0-8.0 - Henry Hub (HH) 2.1 2.8 3.0 2.5-3.5 - Singapore middle distillate inventories also remained at high level High Sulfur Fuel Oil + Lower supply amid reduced term lifting of medium-heavy sour crude from OPEC+ supports price Low Sulfur Fuel Oil + Healthy bunker and power demand followed the global trade recovery + Lower supply owing to crude production cuts by OPEC+ Singapore GRM + Improved crack margins from the recovery of gasoline and gasoil demand Gas/LNG Asian Spot LNG: + Bullish winter weather and stock-building demand from China in 1Q21 Downward price pressures from new supply from 2Q21 onwards Henry Hub: + Higher price due to expectation of strong demand for LNG exports Source: PTT, PRISM Petroleum Rolling as of Jan 2021 26

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