Investor Presentaiton
National Economic Growth Improved
Strong GDP Growth¹
%
7.0
QoQ
- YoY
5.0
3.27
3.31
3.14
4.01
3.19
3.09
3.06
3.0
1.0
0.04
-1.0
(0.16)
-3.0
(0.36)
(1.73)
(0.30)
(0.41)
(1.81)
(1.70)
(2.07)
-5.0
-7.0
5.05
(0.52)
(1.69)
(4.19) (0.42)
(1.74)
(2.41) 2.19)
(3.49)
(5.32)
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%
10.00
8.80
7.40
.
•
National economic growth maintained recovery momentum in the fourth quarter of 2020. Based
on data from BPS-Statistics Indonesia, economic growth in Indonesia recorded a shallower -
2.19% (yoy) contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020, improving from -3.49% (yoy) in the third
quarter of 2020. A fourth-quarter improvement was recorded across nearly all demand-side
components and economic sectors. Therefore, national economic growth in Indonesia contracted
2.07% in 2020. Looking forward, domestic economic growth, which improved through to the end
of 2020, is projected to gradually gain momentum in 2021. Bank Indonesia has oriented its
accommodative policy mix towards supporting the national economic recovery, while
strengthening synergy with the Government and other relevant authorities.
Domestic economic improvements in the fourth quarter of 2020 were supported by stimulus
realisation and a positive external sector contribution. Government consumption expanded 1.94%
(yoy) in 2020 due to the realisation of government stimuli, dominated by social assistance
disbursements, other goods and services expenditure as well as regional transfers and village
fund disbursements. Meanwhile, household consumption growth recorded a shallower -3.61%
(yoy) contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with -4.05% (yoy) in the previous
period in response to greater public mobility. Annually, household consumption contracted
2.63%. Investment growth also experienced a slightly shallower -6.15% (yoy) contraction in the
reporting period compared with -6.48% (yoy) in the previous period, bringing the decline for the
year in 2020 to negative 4.95%. On the other hand, net exports enjoyed a positive position as
export performance improved in line with economic recovery momentum in several of Indonesia's
major export destinations amidst comparatively subdued import performance.
Most economic sectors recorded incremental gains in the fourth quarter of 2020. Sectors
associated with healthcare as well as work-from-home and school-from-home activities continued
to improve and maintained positive growth, including Information and Communication as well as
Health Services. In addition, Agriculture and Education also recorded positive growth, while the
Manufacturing Industry and Trade, accounting for large economic contributions, improved to
experience shallower contractions.
6.10
5.00
0.00
4.00
Growth Prospect
Institutions
2021 GDP
growth (% YoY)
2021 Budget
5.0
-5.00
Bank Indonesia
4.1-5.1
-10.00
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Colombia
Philippines
India
IMF (WEO, Apr 2021)
4.3
World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, Jan 2021)
4.4
-15.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ADB (ADO, Apr 2021)
4.5
2019 2020 2021*
2.
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), Including non-profit household consumption
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - October 2020; * indicates estimated figure
**
Consensus Forecast (Apr 2021)
4.4
53
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