Investor Presentaiton

ECL ASSESSMENT ECL SCENARIOS 78 $m Total Provisions for ECL1,2 1H21 (probability 100% Base case 100% Downside weighted) 5,745 4,904 7,330 Total Group Change vs Sep 20 (266) (707) (444) TOTAL PROVISIONS FOR EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES¹ KEY CONSIDERATIONS • Modest underlying CP release reflecting improved environment and customer positions Modest EA release reflecting upgraded economic assumptions partly offset by changes to scenario weightings including reduced upside weighting (15% to 5%) with base case now capturing part of previously assumed upside Detailed analysis of exposures most at risk driving higher target sector FLAS Limited change in exposures (total and mix) ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Economic assumptions considered in deriving ECL scenarios as at Mar 21 ($m) 4,835 6,011 514 5,745 Base case Downside 314 % 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 410 GDP change 4,252 4,126 (Year ended 5.3 2.6 2.5 (0.1) (4.7) 2.8 3,275 September) Unemployment (as at 30 6.2 5.5 5.0 7.5 9.5 9.0 1,150 Mar 20 1,245 Sep 20 ■Housing Business Other 1,305 September) Mar 21 House price change (Year ended September) 7.7 6.5 3.5 (5.7) (9.6) (5.4) (1) ECL excludes provisions on fair value loans and derivatives (2) Scenarios, prepared for purposes of informing forward looking provisions, rely on NAB Economics modelling and management judgement National Australia Bank

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