Scotiabank ESG and Financial Performance Update
Colombian Economy
•
•
STRONG UNDERLYING MOMENTUM 1
GDP 2022: 7.3%
GDP 2023F: 1.5%
COLOMBIAN GDP BY INDUSTRY 2
GDP 2024F: 2.5%
13.7%
Finance, Insurance,
& Real Estate
10.1%
4.3%
Arts &
Entertainment
18.0%
Wholesale, Retail Trade,
Accommodation & Food Services
11.9%
Manufacturing
Economic activity is showing a healthy slowdown in private
demand. However, the slowdown is more moderate. High
remittances are contributing to complementing households'
income
Inflation reached a peak in April, which affirms the thesis that
BanRep is closer to the end of the policy rate hiking cycle. Not
only has headline inflation diminished, but also core inflation
showed signals of stability
Checks and balances are working in the discussion of the social
reform agenda. The government has a willingness to negotiate
more moderate initiatives with congress. On the other side,
fiscal sustainability remains the main commitment of the
government
Other
5.6%
Natural Resources
3.2%
Information &
Communication
246.32 tn
COP2015
SWDA
(Q4-2022)
6.9%
Professional,
Scientific,
6.6%
Mining and Oil
& Gas Extraction
4.4%
Construction
15.3%
& Technical
Services
Public Administration
CONTRIBUTIONS TO COLOMBIAN GDP GROWTH 2
y/y % change
Other*
Investment
Consumption
Net Exports
Government
Real GDP
15
10
2505052525
-5
-10
-15
20
21
22
22
TOP TRADING PARTNERS 3
United
Others
States
43%
25%
China 18%
India 3%
Brazil 6%
Mexico 5%
* Statistical discrepancy, subject to revision
1 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg, as of May 18, 2023; 2 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Haver Analytics; 3 Trade data updated as of Q4-2022
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