Nutrien Financial and Strategic Update
Increased projected global shipment range to 65 to 67 million
tonnes in 2023 and expect further demand growth in 2024
Potash Demand
Millions of Tonnes KCI
20
20
15
10
5
0
20 21 22 23F 24F
India
20 21 22 23F 24F
20 21 22 23F 24F
North America
2023
Forecast
2024
Forecast
2.8 3.0Mmt
Shipments expected to fall
below historical levels due to
delayed contracts and
revisions to nutrient-based
subsidies.
Other Asia
7.7
8.3Mmt
Palm oil prices support
affordability, especially with
current potash prices
incenting buyers to reengage
with the market, particularly
with reduced channel
inventory and improved rice
fundamentals.
9.8 10.3Mmt
Healthy demand in spring
2023 depleted channel
inventories to historically low
levels, which supported
strong engagement on
summer fill programs. Early
start to harvest improves
prospects for an open fall
season.
20 21 22 23F 24F
Latin America
15.5 16.0Mmt
Brazil's potash imports have
increased in 2023 driven by
improved potash affordability
and increased soybean
acreage.
20 21 22 23F 24F
China
20 21 22 23F 24F
Other
16.3 16.7Mmt
China's 2023 potash contract
settled in June provided
market participants with price
clarity for the balance of
2023. Gov't policies incenting
increased grain production
are expected to support crop
input use.
12.3
12.9Mmt
Growing demand for NPK
fertilizers are expected to
continue boosting potash
demand in the long-run,
however supply constraints
likely to result in below trend
demand in 2023.
We expect robust agricultural fundamentals and the need to replenish soil nutrient levels will support increased potash consumption next year. We forecast global potash shipments in the range of
67 to 71 million tonnes in 2024, supported by stronger expected demand in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe and India.
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Source: Industry Consultants, NutrienView entire presentation