Climate Change Impact and Structural Reforms in Kiribati
KIRIBATI
(Figure 1, panel 1).4 Catch values reveal a broadly similar pattern (Figure 1, panel 2). More
specifically, total catch volumes in Kiribati's EEZ remained broadly stable between the 1970s and
early 1990s but increased sharply in 1998 due to the use of fish aggregating devices (FADS) and the
occurrence of El Niño. After 2007, tuna catch volumes and value rose exponentially, following the
adoption of the VDS, which set a total allowable effort in fishing days. 5 The total catch dropped by
18 percent (panel 2) between 2015 and 2018, partly reflecting the closure of the PIPA to commercial
fishing. However, the high fishing levels in 2014-2015 also likely reflect overfishing in anticipation of
the closure (see below; the Blue Paradox). In 2019, catch values surged significantly, exceeding the
2015 catch levels, but the global pandemic led to another drop in 2020 and 2021. The pandemic had
an impact across the whole WCP as tuna catch declined by 17 percent between 2019 and 2021
(panels 3 and 4). Also notable is the increase in catch by the Kiribati-flagged fleet-increasing from
below 10 percent of the total catch in the years before 2010 to over 40 percent in 2021 (not shown
here). However, a large share of the value ends up outside Kiribati, as onshore processing in Kiribati
remains small (less than 1 percent of tuna caught in the national waters in 2019, according to FFA
statistics).
8.
Despite an overall exponential rise in tuna catch, significant year-to-year volatility is
visible in tuna catch volume and values for Kiribati related to weather and climate change.
This variability reflects the fact that tuna is a migratory species and individual countries such as
Kiribati can see pronounced year-to-year changes, as opposed to the WCP as a whole (panel 3),
Research has pointed to climate conditions-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—when warmer
water comes to the western Pacific during La Niña periods, tuna moves towards the western side of
the WCP area, causing a decline in Kiribati's tuna catch, as in 2021-2022 as it gets colder conditions
than normal. Similar episodes occurred in 1988-89, late 1990/early 1991, 1995 and in the early 2000s.
This phenomenon is documented for tuna in both the western Pacific (Lehodey et al., 1997) and the
Indian Ocean (Kumar et al., 2014). As the effects of climate change become more prevalent, these
oscillations may change and alter the interactions between tuna fishing and ecosystem structures
(Callahan et al., 2021; Cai et al., 2015), negatively affecting the tuna fishery sector in Kiribati as
temperature warming is likely to be larger in the eastern Pacific than in the western Pacific.
9.
Given the importance of the tuna fisheries in the WCP, sustainability is carefully
monitored using a variety of data and sources. The monitoring is based on a statistical model
maintained by the WCP Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) that incorporates length, age, and spatial
structure factors to mimic the patterns and values observed in terms of relative abundance (catch
per unit of effort), tagging information, and tuna size frequencies (Hampton and Fournier 2001; see
Box 1). In addition, weather events may have a big impact on tuna populations-during El Niño
events, tuna fishing efforts typically expand eastwards in the WCP area, but during La Niña events,
4 Note that observers cite a definite lack of transparency in Kiribati's marine fisheries data, making it difficult to assess
exactly what is occurring in Kiribati's waters, although data reporting improved over time.
5 The key to the VDS is the annual process of agreeing a limit on the number of days that can be fished by purse
seine vessels across the combined EEZs of the Parties. A similar system is under development for longline fishing. Of
note, the allocated days are relatively stable over time, but the number of VDS days used fluctuates from year to
year, from a high of 93.3 percent in 2013 to a low of 78.3 percent in 2015 and increased to 82 percent in 2019.
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