Housing Market and Credit Assessment
Nordic economic development
Resilient economies face global uncertainty
19
GDP development
Trade with Russia
135
135
12
Index 2007Q1=100
GDP, level
Index 2007Q1=100
%
11
130
130
Sweden
10
12
Trade with Russia, 2021
%
11
10
125-
125
Norway
9
120
Denmark
■Exports to Russia (share of total exports)
Imports from Russia (share of total imports)
120
8
Finland
115
115
7
9 8 7
6-
110
110
5
105
105
4
100
100
3
95
95
2
1
65432-
90
90
°
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
14 15
16 17 18
19
20 21 22 23
Source: Macrobond and Nordea.
Sweden
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Source: Macrobond and Nordea
After the dramatic setback in 2020 due to the coronavirus, the Nordic
economies recovered quickly and even showed signs of overheating.
However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as monetary
tightening by central banks around the world, now risk slowing down
the global economy, including the Nordics.
GDP, forecasts from Economic Outlook January 2022
Country
2021
2022E
2023E
Denmark
4.7
2.5
2.0
•
The Nordic countries, with the exception of Finland, do not have
significant trade relations with Russia. Thus, the direct impact from
declining trade with Russia will be very limited for Sweden, Norway and
Denmark. Instead, the main effects of the war in Ukraine on the
economies of these countries are higher prices due to supply
disruptions, faster monetary tightening to limit these price increases,
and higher risk aversion leading to lower demand.
Finland
3.5
3.0
2.0
Norway
4.2
4.0
2.0
Sweden
4.8
3.7
1.7
Source: Nordea Markets and Macrobond
NordeaView entire presentation